Goldman Roger: insider trades

Director at Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida. 1 open-market purchase and 6 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 3, 2012 to May 31, 2018.

Would copying Goldman Roger’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. After their sales, the shares moved −6.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 67% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Goldman Roger: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	6	+0.3%	−2.2%	67%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	6	−6.4%	−13.8%	67%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	6	−4.6%	−4.9%	67%	2	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida SBCF	—	1	6	August 3, 2012	May 31, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
May 31, 2018	May 31, 2018	SBCF	Sale	$76,875	−6.8%	−27.6%	−28.2%
May 17, 2018	May 16, 2018	SBCF	Sale	$59,500	−6.9%	−24.2%	−21.7%
May 8, 2018	May 4, 2018	SBCF	Sale	$197,130	−1.6%	−14.6%	−9.3%
March 20, 2018	March 7, 2018	SBCF	Sale	$175,616	+16.9%	−13.1%	−0.5%
August 10, 2017	August 8, 2017	SBCF	Sale	$53,042	+2.9%	+18.3%	+8.2%
June 1, 2017	May 30, 2017	SBCF	Sale	$67,650	−2.8%	+22.8%	+23.7%
August 3, 2012	August 3, 2012	SBCF	Purchase	$14,000	not yet	not yet	not yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Goldman Roger traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.