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Mcwhirter William A: insider trades

Officer at Trinity Industries Inc. No open-market purchases and 17 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 5, 2010 to March 6, 2018.

What happened after Mcwhirter William A’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +7.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 41% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 17 −0.5% +2.8% 47% 8 0.11 0.91 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 17 +7.9% +11.3% 41% 8 0.95 0.37 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 17 +7.9% +10.4% 41% 8 0.93 0.39 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Trinity Industries Inc TRN Senior Vice President017May 5, 2010March 6, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 6, 2018March 5, 2018 TRN Sale $522,645 +2.8%−6.3%−8.8%
December 15, 2017December 15, 2017 TRN Sale $738,000 −12.2%−17.2%−16.3%
May 23, 2017May 23, 2017 TRN Sale $754,110 +7.2%+18.6%+16.0%
August 10, 2016August 9, 2016 TRN Sale $1,159,500 +8.8%+11.3%+10.4%
August 4, 2014July 31, 2014 TRN Sale $4,833,010 −24.2%−46.8%−43.2%
February 28, 2014February 28, 2014 TRN Sale $249,025 +17.0%−20.5%−19.7%
May 20, 2013May 17, 2013 TRN Sale $808,579 −2.4%+78.3%+83.9%
November 9, 2012November 9, 2012 TRN Sale $218,448 +29.1%+48.8%+50.5%
November 2, 2012November 1, 2012 TRN Sale $1,063,864 +22.5%+43.9%+39.7%
August 7, 2012August 7, 2012 TRN Sale $428,269 +5.4%+20.2%+21.3%
February 22, 2012February 21, 2012 TRN Sale $259,719 −25.6%+7.4%+9.8%
May 18, 2011May 18, 2011 TRN Sale $486,870 −16.9%−23.5%−24.1%
May 11, 2011May 10, 2011 TRN Sale $248,579 −12.3%−20.6%−23.4%
May 4, 2011May 4, 2011 TRN Sale $463,860 −15.2%−19.5%−17.9%
February 23, 2011February 23, 2011 TRN Sale $120,040 +6.2%+13.5%+15.8%
December 3, 2010December 1, 2010 TRN Sale $71,550 +13.1%+17.0%+15.9%
May 5, 2010May 3, 2010 TRN Sale $456,120 −11.9%+29.8%+24.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Mcwhirter William A traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.