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Shoaf Forrest: insider trades

Officer at Cracker Barrel OLD Country Store, Inc. No open-market purchases and 11 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 14, 2010 to September 29, 2011.

What happened after Shoaf Forrest’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +1.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 64% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 11 −2.0% −1.9% 55% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 11 +1.7% −9.9% 64% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 11 −0.2% −10.8% 64% 2 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Cracker Barrel OLD Country Store, Inc CBRL Sr. VP & Chief Legal Officer011April 14, 2010September 29, 2011

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
September 29, 2011September 27, 2011 CBRL Sale $168,800 +15.1%+42.6%+39.9%
September 19, 2011September 15, 2011 CBRL Sale $83,880 +19.8%+45.1%+33.7%
June 8, 2011June 6, 2011 CBRL Sale $22,510 −1.9%+32.5%+33.0%
April 14, 2011April 12, 2011 CBRL Sale $43,610 −4.1%+6.6%+10.1%
January 5, 2011January 3, 2011 CBRL Sale $138,350 −16.0%−6.9%−7.1%
December 21, 2010December 17, 2010 CBRL Sale $56,285 −17.1%−9.9%−10.8%
December 9, 2010December 7, 2010 CBRL Sale $327,500 −16.4%−11.0%−13.6%
October 18, 2010October 14, 2010 CBRL Sale $105,040 −9.8%−28.9%−22.7%
September 23, 2010September 21, 2010 CBRL Sale $225,000 +2.4%−18.3%−25.2%
June 18, 2010June 16, 2010 CBRL Sale $25,420 +1.1%−17.5%−22.1%
April 14, 2010April 13, 2010 CBRL Sale $471,276 +5.1%−16.1%−18.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Shoaf Forrest traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.