Rizvi Zafar A: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at REX American Resources Corp. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 29, 2012 to January 11, 2017.

What happened after Rizvi Zafar A’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −25.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Rizvi Zafar A: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	13	+10.1%	+25.8%	31%	3	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	13	−25.3%	−24.0%	100%	3	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	13	−24.8%	−25.2%	100%	3	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
REX American Resources Corp REX	CEO; President	0	13	March 29, 2012	January 11, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
January 11, 2017	January 10, 2017	REX	Sale	$1,530,400	−8.2%	−33.2%	−35.5%
July 16, 2014	July 14, 2014	REX	Sale	$830,000	−16.9%	−32.4%	−32.6%
June 23, 2014	June 20, 2014	REX	Sale	$800,000	+6.1%	−24.0%	−32.2%
June 16, 2014	June 13, 2014	REX	Sale	$1,510,000	+13.5%	−30.6%	−29.8%
June 10, 2014	June 9, 2014	REX	Sale	$1,125,000	+35.5%	−25.6%	−25.2%
April 18, 2014	April 16, 2014	REX	Sale	$522,970	+25.8%	−16.4%	−8.8%
April 18, 2014	April 16, 2014	REX	Sale	$48,659	+25.8%	−16.4%	−8.8%
April 16, 2014	April 15, 2014	REX	Sale	$860,150	+29.0%	−12.1%	−10.7%
April 16, 2014	April 14, 2014	REX	Sale	$472,972	+29.0%	−12.1%	−11.8%
April 16, 2014	April 14, 2014	REX	Sale	$166,309	+29.0%	−12.1%	−11.8%
April 15, 2014	April 11, 2014	REX	Sale	$39,009	+31.1%	−8.8%	−14.3%
March 30, 2012	March 29, 2012	REX	Sale	$26,044	−35.5%	−52.8%	−51.4%
March 29, 2012	March 28, 2012	REX	Sale	$196,837	−33.6%	−51.6%	−48.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Rizvi Zafar A traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.