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Teichgraeber Gretchen: insider trades

Director at Forrester Research, Inc. No open-market purchases and 37 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 9, 2010 to November 23, 2021.

What happened after Teichgraeber Gretchen’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −6.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 78% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 37 −0.1% −0.4% 54% 9 −0.83 0.43 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 37 −6.7% −3.9% 78% 9 −2.33 0.048 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 37 −6.4% −5.1% 76% 9 −2.46 0.040 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Forrester Research, Inc. FORR —037December 9, 2010November 23, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
November 23, 2021November 22, 2021 FORR Sale $59,950 −8.4%−29.2%−27.8%
November 9, 2021November 8, 2021 FORR Sale $117,240 −9.6%−26.4%−23.3%
September 8, 2021September 3, 2021 FORR Sale $48,500 +15.4%−6.8%−5.2%
September 2, 2021September 2, 2021 FORR Sale $24,000 +15.9%−5.2%−5.7%
September 2, 2021August 30, 2021 FORR Sale $24,040 +15.9%−5.2%−3.8%
August 30, 2021August 27, 2021 FORR Sale $14,250 +17.5%−1.3%−3.9%
August 23, 2021August 20, 2021 FORR Sale $13,800 +25.6%−1.4%−0.1%
March 3, 2021March 1, 2021 FORR Sale $46,020 −20.2%−1.3%−0.8%
March 1, 2021February 25, 2021 FORR Sale $181,965 −13.7%−1.9%−0.9%
February 25, 2021February 23, 2021 FORR Sale $274,405 −15.5%−2.1%+3.8%
February 18, 2021February 16, 2021 FORR Sale $72,902 −3.2%+10.0%+7.6%
December 16, 2020December 14, 2020 FORR Sale $21,995 −2.0%+11.6%+4.6%
December 8, 2020December 4, 2020 FORR Sale $71,764 −6.3%−1.6%+4.0%
November 25, 2020November 24, 2020 FORR Sale $88,000 −1.7%+3.9%+7.0%
August 5, 2020August 3, 2020 FORR Sale $108,216 +5.9%−6.3%−11.2%
December 12, 2019December 12, 2019 FORR Sale $44,612 −6.5%−14.2%−13.7%
November 26, 2019November 26, 2019 FORR Sale $36,389 −5.7%−9.5%−7.5%
June 18, 2019June 14, 2019 FORR Sale $45,830 −28.3%−40.3%−37.1%
August 14, 2018August 14, 2018 FORR Sale $427,125 −6.6%−33.7%−30.8%
March 12, 2018March 12, 2018 FORR Sale $43,301 +1.0%+13.1%+12.4%
March 8, 2018March 7, 2018 FORR Sale $42,075 +4.0%+15.2%+14.0%
February 28, 2018February 26, 2018 FORR Sale $305,961 +3.9%+19.0%+17.4%
December 19, 2017December 15, 2017 FORR Sale $45,000 −4.8%−0.2%−3.9%
September 5, 2017August 31, 2017 FORR Sale $256,250 +5.7%+1.7%+3.5%
August 2, 2017July 31, 2017 FORR Sale $41,250 +5.9%−3.9%−0.7%
June 19, 2017June 16, 2017 FORR Sale $39,440 −0.5%−3.6%−5.4%
November 17, 2016November 16, 2016 FORR Sale $151,188 −15.9%−5.5%−5.1%
November 5, 2014November 3, 2014 FORR Sale $111,155 −7.9%−27.9%−25.3%
June 13, 2014June 11, 2014 FORR Sale $23,002 0.0%−12.3%−17.3%
March 3, 2011March 2, 2011 FORR Sale $73,250 −1.7%−18.2%−18.6%
March 1, 2011February 28, 2011 FORR Sale $73,000 −0.4%−18.6%−14.8%
February 25, 2011February 24, 2011 FORR Sale $72,250 +2.6%−14.8%−14.3%
February 18, 2011February 18, 2011 FORR Sale $72,000 +2.6%−15.9%−14.8%
February 16, 2011February 14, 2011 FORR Sale $36,000 +3.9%−11.3%−12.9%
December 16, 2010December 14, 2010 FORR Sale $113,100 +7.7%−0.6%−0.4%
December 14, 2010December 10, 2010 FORR Sale $323,065 +9.4%0.0%−1.5%
December 9, 2010December 7, 2010 FORR Sale $165,000 +10.9%−1.5%−6.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Teichgraeber Gretchen traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.