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Guest Kevin: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at Usana Health Sciences Inc. No open-market purchases and 21 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 1, 2010 to March 11, 2024.

What happened after Guest Kevin’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −4.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 62% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 21 −1.3% −4.2% 67% 12 −0.66 0.52 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 21 −4.5% −19.2% 62% 12 −0.42 0.68 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 21 −4.7% −16.3% 62% 12 −0.42 0.68 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Usana Health Sciences Inc USNA EXEC. CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD021November 1, 2010March 11, 2024

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 11, 2024March 11, 2024 USNA Sale $539,539 −7.4%−50.5%−47.3%
March 8, 2023March 7, 2023 USNA Sale $318,615 −4.2%−51.2%−51.0%
February 23, 2023February 22, 2023 USNA Sale $801,020 −4.2%−51.5%−49.3%
November 8, 2021November 4, 2021 USNA Sale $108,184 −13.4%−32.4%−32.8%
February 25, 2021February 24, 2021 USNA Sale $1,241,175 −2.2%−26.4%−16.3%
February 16, 2021February 11, 2021 USNA Sale $176,779 +4.1%−19.2%−23.5%
June 1, 2020May 28, 2020 USNA Sale $1,081,667 −20.4%−12.2%−15.5%
February 10, 2020February 10, 2020 USNA Sale $615,276 +17.4%+4.9%−14.4%
December 3, 2018November 28, 2018 USNA Sale $2,350,092 −22.5%−55.3%−55.9%
September 14, 2018September 13, 2018 USNA Sale $759,416 +5.8%−49.8%−49.7%
August 23, 2017August 22, 2017 USNA Sale $1,766,494 +6.9%+104.8%+105.5%
August 16, 2016August 15, 2016 USNA Sale $2,134,638 −6.3%−28.2%−31.3%
May 13, 2015May 12, 2015 USNA Sale $342,960 +30.0%−2.3%+0.1%
May 11, 2015May 7, 2015 USNA Sale $1,848,106 +32.9%+0.1%+0.6%
May 27, 2014May 22, 2014 USNA Sale $722,884 −2.4%+64.9%+67.1%
May 21, 2014May 19, 2014 USNA Sale $175,725 −3.3%+67.1%+64.3%
July 29, 2013July 25, 2013 USNA Sale $1,412,028 −9.1%−40.4%−26.2%
August 31, 2012August 29, 2012 USNA Sale $189,360 −8.5%+46.6%+51.4%
July 30, 2012July 27, 2012 USNA Sale $417,555 −7.3%+62.4%+59.2%
February 27, 2012February 24, 2012 USNA Sale $363,184 +8.3%+2.1%+0.7%
November 1, 2010October 28, 2010 USNA Sale $2,936,664 −20.4%−27.3%−35.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Guest Kevin traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.