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Abiteboul Jean: insider trades

Officer at Cheniere Energy, Inc. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 9, 2010 to February 27, 2015.

What happened after Abiteboul Jean’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +48.0% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 29% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 +12.3% +15.4% 29% 5 1.06 0.35 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 +48.0% +55.2% 29% 5 1.35 0.25 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 +45.8% +44.7% 29% 5 1.26 0.28 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG Sr. VP - International015April 9, 2010February 27, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 27, 2015February 25, 2015 LNG Sale $2,316,300 −6.6%−51.7%−51.2%
November 25, 2014November 24, 2014 LNG Sale $2,217,000 +11.6%−35.1%−35.1%
August 18, 2014August 14, 2014 LNG Sale $2,185,500 −8.2%−21.2%−15.2%
August 7, 2014August 5, 2014 LNG Sale $3,561,960 −5.5%−11.2%−19.4%
March 7, 2014March 5, 2014 LNG Sale $1,548,900 +26.0%+37.3%+35.6%
January 8, 2014January 7, 2014 LNG Sale $1,812,800 +22.7%+36.3%+34.9%
December 23, 2013December 20, 2013 LNG Sale $2,518,200 +21.3%+46.5%+46.6%
October 15, 2013October 11, 2013 LNG Sale $550,350 +14.1%+68.3%+61.5%
September 27, 2013September 25, 2013 LNG Sale $329,900 +16.2%+114.9%+122.7%
July 15, 2013July 11, 2013 LNG Sale $1,469,434 +19.6%+115.1%+122.3%
June 21, 2013June 19, 2013 LNG Sale $1,392,000 +14.6%+136.3%+125.1%
January 7, 2013January 3, 2013 LNG Sale $991,000 +26.3%+100.6%+85.8%
May 21, 2012May 17, 2012 LNG Sale $1,082,766 −10.9%+72.6%+85.3%
January 19, 2011January 18, 2011 LNG Sale $131,067 +30.8%+64.0%+42.9%
April 9, 2010April 7, 2010 LNG Sale $537,345 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Abiteboul Jean traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.