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Marzano Vincent: insider trades

Officer at John Wiley & Sons, Inc. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 7, 2010 to July 18, 2018.

What happened after Marzano Vincent’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −11.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 81% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 −1.3% −0.8% 56% 9 −0.31 0.77 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 −11.6% −14.1% 81% 9 −2.47 0.039 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 −12.5% −13.5% 88% 9 −2.56 0.034 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. WLY VP, Treasurer016October 7, 2010July 18, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
July 18, 2018July 17, 2018 WLY Sale $100,206 −16.0%−40.3%−41.0%
January 19, 2018January 19, 2018 WLY Sale $65,274 +6.5%−16.7%−17.6%
January 4, 2018January 2, 2018 WLY Sale $96,208 +0.2%−19.1%−20.8%
December 12, 2017December 12, 2017 WLY Sale $260,350 −2.8%−20.6%−19.7%
April 6, 2017April 5, 2017 WLY Sale $19,224 −2.0%+13.2%+11.0%
July 13, 2016July 13, 2016 WLY Sale $171,275 −6.0%−17.4%−17.8%
March 18, 2016March 18, 2016 WLY Sale $160,050 +6.7%−0.5%−6.5%
July 17, 2015July 14, 2015 WLY Sale $29,589 −0.9%+3.4%−1.8%
January 20, 2015January 20, 2015 WLY Sale $93,600 −4.0%−22.0%−21.8%
July 15, 2014July 15, 2014 WLY Sale $52,452 −9.9%−18.0%−19.0%
March 31, 2014March 28, 2014 WLY Sale $163,818 −0.6%−5.0%−5.2%
March 17, 2014March 14, 2014 WLY Sale $30,771 +1.3%−6.0%−6.5%
October 2, 2013October 1, 2013 WLY Sale $28,033 +0.9%−1.7%−0.6%
April 17, 2012April 17, 2012 WLY Sale $13,395 +7.6%−33.1%−33.2%
July 22, 2011July 19, 2011 WLY Sale $23,957 +1.8%−11.4%−9.3%
October 7, 2010October 5, 2010 WLY Sale $12,684 −2.8%+9.8%+9.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Marzano Vincent traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.