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Parry David C: insider trades

Officer at Illinois Tool Works. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from September 23, 2010 to November 18, 2016.

What happened after Parry David C’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +5.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 31% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 +1.5% +3.3% 44% 6 0.48 0.65 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 +5.6% +4.8% 31% 6 1.17 0.30 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 +5.6% +5.3% 31% 6 1.19 0.29 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Illinois Tool Works ITW Vice Chairman016September 23, 2010November 18, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
November 18, 2016November 16, 2016 ITW Sale $3,856,503 −1.9%+11.3%+8.2%
August 15, 2016August 11, 2016 ITW Sale $4,739,600 +5.1%+5.1%+4.8%
May 18, 2016May 16, 2016 ITW Sale $1,043,500 +8.7%+17.1%+16.4%
April 27, 2016April 25, 2016 ITW Sale $835,280 +5.9%+17.7%+19.4%
February 5, 2016February 3, 2016 ITW Sale $6,251,000 +4.3%+17.6%+22.6%
May 28, 2015May 26, 2015 ITW Sale $5,717,742 −4.0%+13.2%+11.8%
March 17, 2015March 13, 2015 ITW Sale $868,373 −7.3%+4.0%+2.3%
August 1, 2014July 30, 2014 ITW Sale $5,446,008 +6.1%−1.2%−0.7%
May 19, 2014May 15, 2014 ITW Sale $2,620,808 −2.1%−0.1%−0.3%
March 17, 2014March 13, 2014 ITW Sale $1,015,560 +3.9%+10.3%+9.6%
October 29, 2013October 25, 2013 ITW Sale $1,560,800 −0.6%+1.8%+1.3%
June 7, 2013June 5, 2013 ITW Sale $2,426,000 +2.6%+7.7%+6.5%
October 26, 2012October 24, 2012 ITW Sale $906,000 −4.6%+4.4%+5.8%
February 28, 2012February 24, 2012 ITW Sale $559,200 +4.6%−0.7%−0.6%
December 21, 2010December 17, 2010 ITW Sale $1,448,160 −1.3%−11.3%−8.9%
September 23, 2010September 22, 2010 ITW Sale $186,440 +4.4%−7.8%−8.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Parry David C traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.