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Weisberg Oliver Paul: insider trades

10% owner at Blue OWL Capital Inc. No open-market purchases and 18 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 24, 2021 to August 26, 2022.

What happened after Weisberg Oliver Paul’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −8.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 89% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 18 −4.5% −4.9% 83% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 18 −8.7% −10.9% 89% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 18 −8.3% −8.9% 94% 2 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Blue OWL Capital Inc. OWL —018November 24, 2021August 26, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
August 26, 2022August 24, 2022 OWL Sale $1,445,850 +2.6%−4.7%−11.7%
August 23, 2022August 19, 2022 OWL Sale $2,810,780 −0.4%−11.7%−9.3%
August 17, 2022August 15, 2022 OWL Sale $3,116,130 +4.9%−10.8%−14.4%
August 16, 2022August 12, 2022 OWL Sale $3,435,753 +7.7%−9.8%−14.5%
August 10, 2022August 8, 2022 OWL Sale $3,698,520 −0.1%−13.2%−12.2%
August 9, 2022August 5, 2022 OWL Sale $3,766,860 −0.4%−11.9%−8.5%
August 8, 2022August 4, 2022 OWL Sale $4,617,600 −2.2%−12.0%−3.1%
August 5, 2022August 3, 2022 OWL Sale $2,321,187 −7.5%−12.2%+2.1%
August 2, 2022July 29, 2022 OWL Sale $1,550,330 −4.8%+2.1%−0.3%
August 1, 2022July 28, 2022 OWL Sale $2,511,036 −5.7%+1.8%−1.3%
January 4, 2022December 30, 2021 OWL Sale $1,389,150 −4.4%−5.2%−8.3%
December 30, 2021December 28, 2021 OWL Sale $2,105,858 −9.2%−11.3%−9.3%
December 28, 2021December 23, 2021 OWL Sale $4,004,953 −11.5%−7.6%−8.2%
December 15, 2021December 13, 2021 OWL Sale $936,309 −6.5%−8.3%−5.4%
December 14, 2021December 10, 2021 OWL Sale $7,578,690 −5.1%−4.8%−7.8%
December 7, 2021December 3, 2021 OWL Sale $666,490 −11.6%−11.0%−15.1%
November 30, 2021November 26, 2021 OWL Sale $442,544 −13.8%−14.0%−12.0%
November 24, 2021November 22, 2021 OWL Sale $2,163,745 −13.8%−12.0%−9.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Weisberg Oliver Paul traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.