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Tomlinson Steffan: insider trades

Chief financial officer at Palo Alto Networks. No open-market purchases and 21 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from January 24, 2014 to December 22, 2016.

What happened after Tomlinson Steffan’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +6.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 67% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 21 +4.0% +2.3% 48% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 21 +6.4% −9.6% 67% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 21 +6.5% −14.1% 67% 3 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Palo Alto Networks PANW Chief Financial Officer021January 24, 2014December 22, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
December 22, 2016December 21, 2016 PANW Sale $294,135 −16.1%−5.9%−4.6%
November 23, 2016November 21, 2016 PANW Sale $3,192,284 0.0%−13.4%−27.7%
September 23, 2016September 21, 2016 PANW Sale $347,421 −21.0%−25.2%−24.3%
August 24, 2016August 22, 2016 PANW Sale $363,496 −2.4%−23.0%−18.3%
June 23, 2016June 21, 2016 PANW Sale $296,397 +17.4%−9.6%−14.1%
May 24, 2016May 23, 2016 PANW Sale $382,293 −8.3%−37.2%−37.3%
February 24, 2016February 22, 2016 PANW Sale $252,635 −3.7%−14.6%−4.3%
January 25, 2016January 21, 2016 PANW Sale $29,069 −8.7%−24.7%−25.8%
November 25, 2015November 23, 2015 PANW Sale $1,811,154 −15.1%−34.2%−26.5%
October 23, 2015October 21, 2015 PANW Sale $38,304 +3.5%−8.5%−15.3%
September 23, 2015September 21, 2015 PANW Sale $435,431 −7.1%−30.7%−30.0%
July 23, 2015July 21, 2015 PANW Sale $44,600 −14.8%−39.6%−37.3%
June 24, 2015June 22, 2015 PANW Sale $426,896 +8.7%−30.8%−31.6%
April 23, 2015April 21, 2015 PANW Sale $35,498 +29.2%−2.8%−11.5%
March 25, 2015March 23, 2015 PANW Sale $333,336 +23.7%+9.3%+12.6%
January 23, 2015January 21, 2015 PANW Sale $24,821 +18.1%+22.3%+21.5%
December 24, 2014December 22, 2014 PANW Sale $1,176,788 +16.3%+38.1%+44.4%
October 23, 2014October 21, 2014 PANW Sale $24,212 +12.8%+35.1%+46.6%
July 24, 2014July 22, 2014 PANW Sale $18,551 +30.3%+117.7%+126.6%
April 24, 2014April 22, 2014 PANW Sale $14,916 +18.9%+117.2%+101.8%
January 24, 2014January 23, 2014 PANW Sale $45,336 +2.3%+94.9%+90.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Tomlinson Steffan traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.