Butler Deborah H: insider trades

Officer at Norfolk Southern. No open-market purchases and 8 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 31, 2011 to July 29, 2014.

What happened after Butler Deborah H’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −13.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 75% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Butler Deborah H: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	8	−3.9%	−3.4%	63%	4	−2.05	0.13	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	8	−13.7%	−16.8%	75%	4	−1.74	0.18	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	8	−14.0%	−16.7%	88%	4	−1.77	0.17	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Norfolk Southern NSC	Exec. V.P.- Planning & CIO	0	8	October 31, 2011	July 29, 2014

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
July 29, 2014	July 25, 2014	NSC	Sale	$3,538,915	+6.2%	−24.5%	−27.4%
June 5, 2014	June 4, 2014	NSC	Sale	$99,150	+4.8%	−16.8%	−15.6%
May 14, 2014	May 13, 2014	NSC	Sale	$488,150	+3.5%	−11.6%	−9.8%
January 31, 2014	January 30, 2014	NSC	Sale	$920,000	−2.9%	+2.6%	−1.0%
April 26, 2013	April 25, 2013	NSC	Sale	$564,900	−9.3%	+6.6%	+7.3%
August 22, 2012	August 21, 2012	NSC	Sale	$56,874	−21.0%	−16.8%	−17.8%
January 30, 2012	January 27, 2012	NSC	Sale	$252,047	−3.9%	−17.9%	−19.9%
October 31, 2011	October 28, 2011	NSC	Sale	$1,176,600	−8.6%	−31.6%	−27.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Butler Deborah H traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.