Kuglin Michael: insider trades

Chief financial officer, Officer at Suburban Propane Partners LP. No open-market purchases and 11 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 24, 2010 to May 17, 2019.

What happened after Kuglin Michael’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −17.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Kuglin Michael: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	11	−4.7%	−3.9%	91%	8	−3.12	0.017	Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report	11	−17.5%	−13.4%	100%	8	−4.10	0.005	Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade	11	−16.7%	−12.4%	91%	8	−4.04	0.005	Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Suburban Propane Partners LP SPH	CFO & Chief Acctg. Officer	0	11	November 24, 2010	May 17, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
May 17, 2019	May 16, 2019	SPH	Sale	$198,985	−2.3%	−39.1%	−37.3%
August 15, 2018	August 14, 2018	SPH	Sale	$174,725	+0.3%	−0.4%	+0.8%
May 26, 2015	May 26, 2015	SPH	Sale	$174,480	−3.9%	−14.0%	−16.0%
December 3, 2014	December 2, 2014	SPH	Sale	$98,450	−4.9%	−39.3%	−34.3%
September 8, 2014	September 5, 2014	SPH	Sale	$158,727	−2.0%	−13.4%	−10.4%
June 4, 2014	June 4, 2014	SPH	Sale	$74,480	−6.6%	−11.3%	−12.4%
February 10, 2014	February 10, 2014	SPH	Sale	$67,575	−1.9%	−8.9%	−9.5%
August 28, 2013	August 27, 2013	SPH	Sale	$93,500	−9.9%	−21.6%	−22.7%
February 14, 2012	February 14, 2012	SPH	Sale	$54,778	−1.0%	−8.4%	−8.1%
November 30, 2011	November 30, 2011	SPH	Sale	$46,750	−12.8%	−25.7%	−24.8%
November 24, 2010	November 24, 2010	SPH	Sale	$44,495	−6.2%	−10.4%	−9.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Kuglin Michael traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.