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Elfrink Wim: insider trades

Officer at Cisco. No open-market purchases and 28 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 12, 2010 to May 22, 2015.

What happened after Elfrink Wim’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −3.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 54% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 28 −2.8% −1.4% 57% 6 −1.69 0.15 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 28 −3.4% −0.2% 54% 6 −1.05 0.34 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 28 −3.5% −0.7% 54% 6 −1.06 0.34 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Cisco CSCO EVP, Chief Globalisation Ofr028March 12, 2010May 22, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 22, 2015May 21, 2015 CSCO Sale $1,769,100 −2.7%+0.8%−0.1%
May 20, 2015May 18, 2015 CSCO Sale $3,704,100 −3.4%−0.1%−5.7%
February 24, 2015February 20, 2015 CSCO Sale $3,250,500 −0.8%−1.3%−1.3%
November 24, 2014November 20, 2014 CSCO Sale $449,904 +6.6%−0.2%+2.1%
November 19, 2014November 17, 2014 CSCO Sale $666,876 +7.7%+2.1%+1.8%
September 19, 2014September 18, 2014 CSCO Sale $252,300 +7.8%+4.4%+5.1%
August 22, 2014August 22, 2014 CSCO Sale $623,500 +5.9%+7.3%+8.3%
August 21, 2014August 19, 2014 CSCO Sale $2,222,100 +5.9%+8.3%+9.2%
May 28, 2014May 23, 2014 CSCO Sale $171,360 −3.3%+10.4%+8.8%
May 21, 2014May 19, 2014 CSCO Sale $48,800 −2.9%+9.1%+10.7%
February 28, 2014February 28, 2014 CSCO Sale $219,500 +11.1%+24.8%+26.8%
December 19, 2013December 17, 2013 CSCO Sale $209,800 +3.5%+21.3%+17.1%
November 22, 2013November 21, 2013 CSCO Sale $214,300 +0.4%+15.4%+12.1%
September 13, 2013September 13, 2013 CSCO Sale $121,450 −21.5%−13.3%−13.5%
September 9, 2013September 6, 2013 CSCO Sale $354,900 −19.5%−14.4%−13.9%
August 27, 2013August 23, 2013 CSCO Sale $1,920,000 −19.7%−15.2%−15.7%
August 21, 2013August 19, 2013 CSCO Sale $3,066,000 −18.9%−16.4%−18.0%
May 24, 2013May 22, 2013 CSCO Sale $3,595,500 +0.1%−10.3%−8.9%
February 26, 2013February 22, 2013 CSCO Sale $835,600 +7.1%−16.7%−15.1%
December 12, 2012December 10, 2012 CSCO Sale $194,600 −0.1%−22.8%−20.0%
May 29, 2012May 25, 2012 CSCO Sale $98,340 +9.9%+25.4%+25.1%
February 15, 2012February 13, 2012 CSCO Sale $1,202,400 −14.3%−6.7%−7.7%
November 16, 2011November 15, 2011 CSCO Sale $949,000 −1.9%−15.3%−14.6%
September 16, 2011September 15, 2011 CSCO Sale $411,000 +7.4%−6.6%−5.1%
March 11, 2011March 9, 2011 CSCO Sale $597,630 −14.0%+5.0%+4.5%
February 28, 2011February 25, 2011 CSCO Sale $651,700 −12.6%+1.8%+4.0%
March 18, 2010March 16, 2010 CSCO Sale $1,710,848 −7.0%−46.8%−46.1%
March 12, 2010March 10, 2010 CSCO Sale $7,035,600 −7.9%−46.4%−47.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Elfrink Wim traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.