Lynch Walter: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at American Water Works. No open-market purchases and 36 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 14, 2012 to November 22, 2021.

What happened after Lynch Walter’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +3.0% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 47% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Lynch Walter: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	36	+2.5%	+2.0%	36%	10	1.60	0.14	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	36	+3.0%	+1.0%	47%	10	0.82	0.44	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	36	+2.5%	+1.1%	44%	10	0.65	0.53	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
American Water Works AWK	President and CEO	0	36	March 14, 2012	November 22, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
November 22, 2021	November 19, 2021	AWK	Sale	$4,269,080	−5.6%	+1.7%	+1.3%
August 10, 2020	August 10, 2020	AWK	Sale	$1,258,124	+7.4%	−10.3%	−13.7%
September 4, 2019	August 30, 2019	AWK	Sale	$876,694	−7.8%	−3.8%	−9.0%
June 5, 2019	June 4, 2019	AWK	Sale	$380,699	+3.2%	−0.4%	+4.7%
May 17, 2019	May 16, 2019	AWK	Sale	$2,061,277	+8.4%	+4.9%	+6.2%
November 16, 2018	November 15, 2018	AWK	Sale	$458,450	+4.2%	+13.5%	+14.7%
September 6, 2018	September 5, 2018	AWK	Sale	$895,700	+19.4%	+33.8%	+37.9%
November 8, 2017	November 7, 2017	AWK	Sale	$449,750	−15.6%	−7.1%	−8.4%
August 30, 2017	August 28, 2017	AWK	Sale	$273,626	+6.1%	−9.1%	−12.1%
August 23, 2017	August 21, 2017	AWK	Sale	$1,243,858	+2.1%	−9.0%	−9.4%
March 7, 2017	March 2, 2017	AWK	Sale	$780,000	+2.3%	−8.9%	−11.7%
August 22, 2016	August 19, 2016	AWK	Sale	$497,865	−5.8%	−4.8%	−3.8%
August 19, 2016	August 17, 2016	AWK	Sale	$760,000	−6.3%	−5.1%	−5.7%
May 18, 2016	May 16, 2016	AWK	Sale	$752,000	−1.8%	−13.6%	−15.6%
May 11, 2016	May 9, 2016	AWK	Sale	$2,826,568	−2.1%	−14.2%	−15.3%
March 14, 2016	March 11, 2016	AWK	Sale	$682,000	+10.9%	−5.9%	−5.8%
March 9, 2016	March 8, 2016	AWK	Sale	$1,365,000	+7.3%	−8.1%	−9.2%
November 23, 2015	November 20, 2015	AWK	Sale	$575,000	+20.8%	+22.4%	+21.3%
November 12, 2015	November 9, 2015	AWK	Sale	$1,685,000	+20.3%	+19.4%	+27.3%
August 25, 2015	August 21, 2015	AWK	Sale	$1,080,400	+1.5%	+35.0%	+32.0%
March 5, 2015	March 3, 2015	AWK	Sale	$535,000	−3.8%	+33.3%	+35.2%
August 20, 2014	August 19, 2014	AWK	Sale	$271,241	+2.0%	+9.4%	+5.6%
May 27, 2014	May 23, 2014	AWK	Sale	$237,500	−0.2%	+0.3%	+0.8%
May 16, 2014	May 14, 2014	AWK	Sale	$235,500	+1.7%	+2.3%	+1.0%
March 17, 2014	March 13, 2014	AWK	Sale	$675,250	+2.4%	+7.9%	+5.8%
March 11, 2014	March 10, 2014	AWK	Sale	$222,500	+3.9%	+9.9%	+9.5%
March 5, 2014	March 4, 2014	AWK	Sale	$444,700	+5.4%	+8.4%	+8.9%
November 19, 2013	November 15, 2013	AWK	Sale	$215,000	+0.8%	+9.8%	+7.8%
November 15, 2013	November 13, 2013	AWK	Sale	$212,500	−0.3%	+7.8%	+8.8%
May 16, 2013	May 15, 2013	AWK	Sale	$213,750	−2.4%	−1.8%	−0.5%
March 20, 2013	March 18, 2013	AWK	Sale	$201,000	−5.2%	−9.1%	−6.8%
November 20, 2012	November 16, 2012	AWK	Sale	$369,741	−1.6%	−16.2%	−14.9%
August 16, 2012	August 14, 2012	AWK	Sale	$381,500	+0.2%	−7.5%	−9.8%
May 11, 2012	May 9, 2012	AWK	Sale	$541,941	+7.3%	+2.1%	+2.8%
March 15, 2012	March 14, 2012	AWK	Sale	$18,728	+4.3%	+10.3%	+7.9%
March 14, 2012	March 12, 2012	AWK	Sale	$417,655	+5.5%	+9.6%	+4.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Lynch Walter traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.