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Cowie James J: insider trades

Officer at Cadence Design Systems Inc. No open-market purchases and 6 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 31, 2012 to February 19, 2020.

What happened after Cowie James J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +19.8% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 33% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 6 +1.0% +0.6% 50% 6 0.17 0.87 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 6 +19.8% +12.0% 33% 6 1.77 0.14 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 6 +18.5% +9.4% 33% 6 1.75 0.14 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Cadence Design Systems Inc CDNS Sr. VP, General Counsel06July 31, 2012February 19, 2020

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 19, 2020February 18, 2020 CDNS Sale $4,712,400 +25.8%+63.5%+61.7%
August 13, 2019August 9, 2019 CDNS Sale $88,608 −9.6%+39.4%+35.2%
December 6, 2017December 5, 2017 CDNS Sale $1,496,250 −14.9%−2.2%−1.3%
May 26, 2016May 24, 2016 CDNS Sale $1,497,246 −1.8%+22.2%+17.8%
March 7, 2014March 6, 2014 CDNS Sale $779,500 +3.4%+1.8%+0.9%
July 31, 2012July 30, 2012 CDNS Sale $680,473 +2.9%−5.8%−3.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Cowie James J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.