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Orbimed Capital Gp III LLC: insider trades

Director, 10% owner at 4 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 2, 2011 to February 15, 2018.

What happened after Orbimed Capital Gp III LLC’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −9.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 70% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 10 +30.3% +1.2% 50% 5 0.49 0.65 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 10 −9.3% −7.5% 70% 5 0.04 0.97 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 10 −14.7% −10.4% 70% 5 −0.30 0.78 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Amarin Corp plc\uk AMRN —04March 2, 2011April 25, 2011
Glaukos Corp GKOS —03August 5, 2016August 17, 2017
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc. PVLA —02December 20, 2017February 15, 2018
Pacira Biosciences, Inc. PCRX —01February 29, 2012February 29, 2012

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 15, 2018February 13, 2018 PVLA Sale $70,915 −31.1%−69.1%−73.5%
December 20, 2017December 18, 2017 PVLA Sale $841,520 +17.3%−49.8%−47.4%
August 17, 2017August 15, 2017 GKOS Sale $12,326,043 −34.8%−12.7%−12.4%
March 14, 2017March 10, 2017 GKOS Sale $17,339,215 −13.0%−47.1%−50.4%
August 5, 2016August 3, 2016 GKOS Sale $13,000,750 −0.6%−1.1%−4.8%
February 29, 2012February 27, 2012 PCRX Sale $465,342 +2.9%+121.5%+87.0%
April 25, 2011April 21, 2011 AMRN Sale $12,500,000 −10.6%−42.5%−44.8%
March 15, 2011March 11, 2011 AMRN Sale $1,654,750 +97.8%+10.1%−8.3%
March 7, 2011March 3, 2011 AMRN Sale $573,980 +128.0%−2.3%+0.4%
March 2, 2011February 28, 2011 AMRN Sale $1,884,400 +147.5%+0.4%+7.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Orbimed Capital Gp III LLC traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.