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Harvey Hugh E Jr: insider trades

Director at Intrepid Potash, Inc. 2 open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 15, 2010 to August 13, 2019.

Would copying Harvey Hugh E Jr’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. After their sales, the shares moved −32.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 77% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −6.6% −8.5% 69% 5 −1.03 0.36 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −32.6% −37.3% 77% 5 −2.91 0.044 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −33.8% −43.3% 77% 5 −3.05 0.038 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI —213June 15, 2010August 13, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
August 13, 2019August 12, 2019 IPI Purchase $64,500 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 23, 2017March 21, 2017 IPI Purchase $3,879,998 not yetnot yetnot yet
December 8, 2014December 4, 2014 IPI Sale $2,406,199 −11.7%−77.5%−79.8%
November 13, 2013November 8, 2013 IPI Sale $16,114,321 −10.9%−27.8%−32.9%
September 19, 2012September 17, 2012 IPI Sale $1,338,986 −3.6%−44.9%−48.1%
September 6, 2012September 4, 2012 IPI Sale $5,869,749 −6.4%−58.9%−59.8%
September 12, 2011September 8, 2011 IPI Sale $8,692,500 −42.9%−52.9%−53.2%
August 25, 2011August 23, 2011 IPI Sale $4,827,811 −29.5%−51.9%−50.0%
August 19, 2011August 17, 2011 IPI Sale $2,444,842 −27.2%−54.3%−50.0%
March 22, 2011March 18, 2011 IPI Sale $15,510,053 −8.5%−37.2%−38.7%
March 18, 2011March 16, 2011 IPI Sale $18,253,167 −13.9%−37.2%−43.3%
November 9, 2010November 5, 2010 IPI Sale $24,187,500 +8.0%−27.1%−23.2%
August 20, 2010August 18, 2010 IPI Sale $29,652,000 +18.7%+16.5%+12.0%
August 10, 2010August 6, 2010 IPI Sale $18,375,000 +29.2%+9.3%+5.5%
June 15, 2010June 14, 2010 IPI Sale $11,125,000 +12.5%+20.2%+21.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Harvey Hugh E Jr traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.