Coupe Donna L.: insider trades

Officer at Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 27, 2015 to January 19, 2022.

What happened after Coupe Donna L.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −19.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 90% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Coupe Donna L.: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	10	−8.0%	−6.7%	70%	7	−2.13	0.077	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	10	−19.5%	−16.7%	90%	7	−2.89	0.028	Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade	10	−18.2%	−14.5%	80%	7	−2.58	0.042	Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. RMCF	VP Franchise Support	0	10	July 27, 2015	January 19, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
January 19, 2022	January 18, 2022	RMCF	Sale	$15,883	−14.6%	−20.9%	−15.6%
October 21, 2021	October 21, 2021	RMCF	Sale	$59,080	−10.8%	−10.9%	−10.6%
January 15, 2020	January 15, 2020	RMCF	Sale	$35,040	−38.3%	−65.2%	−67.4%
May 15, 2018	May 15, 2018	RMCF	Sale	$23,007	−15.3%	−19.7%	−21.1%
October 24, 2017	October 24, 2017	RMCF	Sale	$11,340	−2.5%	−31.3%	−24.3%
July 11, 2017	July 11, 2017	RMCF	Sale	$14,715	−1.3%	−13.7%	−13.4%
November 14, 2016	November 14, 2016	RMCF	Sale	$19,380	+7.7%	−1.7%	+1.1%
July 20, 2016	July 20, 2016	RMCF	Sale	$30,300	+4.4%	+1.1%	+2.0%
November 5, 2015	November 5, 2015	RMCF	Sale	$21,760	+2.8%	−8.6%	−6.2%
July 27, 2015	July 27, 2015	RMCF	Sale	$25,640	−11.9%	−24.3%	−26.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Coupe Donna L. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.