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Bontrager D Brett: insider trades

Officer at Stanley Black & Decker. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 29, 2010 to May 11, 2015.

What happened after Bontrager D Brett’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −3.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 60% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 10 −1.4% −1.4% 60% 5 −0.16 0.88 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 10 −3.6% −5.0% 60% 5 −0.05 0.96 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 10 −4.1% −7.8% 60% 5 −0.08 0.94 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Stanley Black & Decker SWK President, Vertical Markets010April 29, 2010May 11, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 11, 2015May 8, 2015 SWK Sale $1,548,000 +2.2%+11.2%+10.2%
April 30, 2014April 28, 2014 SWK Sale $2,816,175 −0.7%+4.0%+5.7%
August 2, 2013August 2, 2013 SWK Sale $333,284 −12.2%−12.2%−12.8%
May 17, 2013May 15, 2013 SWK Sale $1,771,774 +7.4%−7.7%−7.5%
January 31, 2013January 30, 2013 SWK Sale $1,284,173 −7.5%−17.3%−18.3%
February 29, 2012January 26, 2012 SWK Sale $239,173 −9.1%−9.8%−8.0%
February 24, 2012February 17, 2012 SWK Sale $644,654 −5.1%−5.6%−9.1%
January 30, 2012January 26, 2012 SWK Sale $933,869 −2.1%−4.5%−8.0%
December 13, 2010December 10, 2010 SWK Sale $756,912 +12.2%+3.1%0.0%
April 29, 2010April 27, 2010 SWK Sale $2,138,500 +0.6%+2.5%+6.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bontrager D Brett traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.