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Hora Maninder: insider trades

Officer at Nektar Therapeutics. No open-market purchases and 12 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 18, 2016 to May 17, 2019.

What happened after Hora Maninder’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +86.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 58% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 12 +6.6% −6.8% 58% 4 0.19 0.86 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 12 +86.7% −10.8% 58% 4 0.79 0.49 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 12 +79.8% −6.9% 58% 4 0.75 0.51 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Nektar Therapeutics NKTR SVP Pharma Dev & Mfg Ops012February 18, 2016May 17, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 17, 2019May 16, 2019 NKTR Sale $76,825 −47.9%−35.4%−31.3%
February 21, 2019February 19, 2019 NKTR Sale $101,143 −18.9%−61.9%−70.7%
November 19, 2018November 16, 2018 NKTR Sale $179,546 +1.1%−67.1%−68.3%
May 18, 2018May 16, 2018 NKTR Sale $338,563 −32.4%−66.4%−69.7%
February 20, 2018February 16, 2018 NKTR Sale $238,452 −6.6%−59.0%−52.3%
August 18, 2017August 16, 2017 NKTR Sale $57,110 +146.2%+228.2%+189.9%
May 18, 2017May 16, 2017 NKTR Sale $57,848 −7.1%+323.6%+323.5%
February 17, 2017February 16, 2017 NKTR Sale $28,842 +42.1%+528.3%+524.1%
November 18, 2016November 16, 2016 NKTR Sale $23,090 −10.3%+249.7%+201.9%
August 17, 2016August 16, 2016 NKTR Sale $58,036 −21.6%−11.3%−4.2%
May 18, 2016May 17, 2016 NKTR Sale $11,339 +24.6%+22.4%+24.1%
February 18, 2016February 17, 2016 NKTR Sale $11,479 +10.3%−10.4%−9.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Hora Maninder traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.