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Ellsworth John J.: insider trades

Officer at Scansource, Inc. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 18, 2010 to December 13, 2016.

What happened after Ellsworth John J.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −14.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 81% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 −4.1% −4.6% 75% 6 −2.36 0.064 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 −14.3% −15.8% 81% 6 −2.28 0.071 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 −13.7% −14.0% 81% 6 −2.21 0.079 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Scansource, Inc. SCSC EVP, Gen Counsel &Corp Sec016March 18, 2010December 13, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
December 13, 2016December 12, 2016 SCSC Sale $400,663 −2.2%−32.7%−32.9%
March 18, 2016March 17, 2016 SCSC Sale $113,246 −5.3%−19.1%−16.2%
June 5, 2015June 3, 2015 SCSC Sale $227,650 +0.2%−4.6%−4.1%
December 11, 2014December 9, 2014 SCSC Sale $361,162 −3.9%−17.1%−15.4%
December 4, 2014December 4, 2014 SCSC Sale $79,800 −9.1%−11.2%−7.4%
March 25, 2014March 24, 2014 SCSC Sale $58,515 −8.6%−10.8%−10.0%
December 6, 2013December 6, 2013 SCSC Sale $329,035 −12.7%−17.4%−20.5%
November 1, 2013October 30, 2013 SCSC Sale $38,750 −9.2%−18.3%−19.4%
September 20, 2013September 19, 2013 SCSC Sale $33,000 +15.8%−15.4%−8.9%
June 25, 2013June 21, 2013 SCSC Sale $81,600 −0.8%−8.0%−12.5%
May 9, 2013May 8, 2013 SCSC Sale $31,000 +12.5%+7.4%+0.6%
March 5, 2013March 5, 2013 SCSC Sale $39,013 +3.0%+9.4%+11.3%
August 30, 2012August 28, 2012 SCSC Sale $15,080 −1.9%−16.2%−15.7%
March 23, 2012March 21, 2012 SCSC Sale $18,608 −13.1%−39.2%−33.9%
February 2, 2012January 31, 2012 SCSC Sale $51,262 −19.1%−40.4%−39.6%
March 18, 2010March 17, 2010 SCSC Sale $29,400 −10.7%+5.0%+6.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Ellsworth John J. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.