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Armstrong Steve: insider trades

Officer at MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc. No open-market purchases and 14 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 23, 2013 to April 22, 2021.

What happened after Armstrong Steve’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −12.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 86% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 −3.6% −4.0% 64% 7 −1.71 0.14 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 −12.6% −15.3% 86% 7 −3.10 0.021 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 −12.7% −16.8% 86% 7 −3.01 0.024 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc MSM SVP, GC and Corp. Secy.014July 23, 2013April 22, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
April 22, 2021April 21, 2021 MSM Sale $2,115,818 −9.5%−5.1%−8.6%
April 12, 2021April 8, 2021 MSM Sale $5,252,305 −3.7%−7.8%−13.8%
February 9, 2021February 8, 2021 MSM Sale $311,039 +4.9%−20.6%−19.8%
January 22, 2019January 18, 2019 MSM Sale $436,567 −8.9%−29.2%−31.7%
May 22, 2018May 22, 2018 MSM Sale $630,895 −8.7%−23.6%−25.0%
January 23, 2018January 19, 2018 MSM Sale $667,684 −4.3%−9.9%−5.0%
January 17, 2018January 16, 2018 MSM Sale $1,820,007 +1.1%−4.2%−7.9%
January 19, 2017January 18, 2017 MSM Sale $1,176,468 −14.6%−31.6%−31.9%
January 17, 2017January 12, 2017 MSM Sale $1,614,017 −15.2%−31.9%−27.7%
August 22, 2016August 19, 2016 MSM Sale $273,742 +17.5%−20.9%−22.7%
April 27, 2016April 26, 2016 MSM Sale $285,498 −12.1%+0.5%+6.3%
February 5, 2016February 4, 2016 MSM Sale $247,282 +3.7%+34.5%+37.7%
January 21, 2014January 17, 2014 MSM Sale $303,839 +0.6%−21.1%−22.5%
July 23, 2013July 22, 2013 MSM Sale $343,636 −0.9%−5.7%−5.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Armstrong Steve traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.