White Alan B: insider trades

Chief executive at Hilltop Holdings Inc. No open-market purchases and 11 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 20, 2014 to February 28, 2019.

What happened after White Alan B’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +0.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 55% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

White Alan B: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	11	−10.0%	−10.1%	91%	5	−1.87	0.13	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	11	+0.1%	−2.9%	55%	5	−0.61	0.57	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	11	−2.2%	−4.5%	64%	5	−0.93	0.40	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH	Co-Chief Executive Officer	0	11	August 20, 2014	February 28, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
February 28, 2019	February 26, 2019	HTH	Sale	$1,336,674	+5.9%	+1.9%	−2.7%
May 9, 2018	May 7, 2018	HTH	Sale	$425,746	−13.2%	−15.8%	−15.8%
May 17, 2017	May 15, 2017	HTH	Sale	$2,056,819	−4.6%	−24.0%	−27.5%
May 1, 2017	April 28, 2017	HTH	Sale	$2,687,466	−10.1%	−30.4%	−31.8%
November 25, 2015	November 23, 2015	HTH	Sale	$329,850	−13.9%	+17.7%	+20.2%
November 20, 2015	November 18, 2015	HTH	Sale	$1,831,350	−20.5%	+20.2%	+19.2%
November 18, 2015	November 16, 2015	HTH	Sale	$1,025,290	−18.4%	+23.6%	+21.1%
November 12, 2015	November 10, 2015	HTH	Sale	$1,151,040	−19.8%	+20.3%	+8.1%
August 28, 2014	August 26, 2014	HTH	Sale	$837,763	−7.4%	−2.9%	−4.9%
August 25, 2014	August 21, 2014	HTH	Sale	$732,470	−4.0%	−4.9%	−4.5%
August 20, 2014	August 18, 2014	HTH	Sale	$2,053,000	−3.9%	−4.5%	−5.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why White Alan B traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.