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Pappas James C and related entities: insider trades

Director, Other at 3 companies we cover. 17 open-market purchases and no sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 12, 2016 to January 6, 2026. Trades reported separately by several related funds or companies are counted once, under this name.

Would copying Pappas James C and related entities’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. Only 16 purchases have 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on December 13, 2016 into $10,716 by November 2, 2026, +0.7% a year. The copy held shares only 43% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $19,305, +6.9% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $38,893, +14.8% a year). Beta against the index was 0.10. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was −25.5% against the S&P 500 (median −25.3%), and 0% beat it. Measured from the trade date, the insider’s own timing, the average was −25.9%.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

$0$20.0k$40.0k 201620182020202220242026 $38.9k$19.3k$10.7k
Copying Pappas James C and related entitiesS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying Pappas James C and related entities’s open-market purchases from December 13, 2016, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.
Return a year, copying
+0.7%
S&P 500, same days invested
+6.9% (held throughout +14.8%)
Time in shares
43%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.11 (0.71)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−64% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
0.10
Purchases copied
17

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 17 −0.2% −5.0% 41% 5 0.49 0.65 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report 17 −10.3% −11.5% 18% 5 −0.51 0.64 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the report 16 −25.5% −25.3% 0% 4 −9.56 0.002 Some evidence: behind
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 16 −25.9% −25.7% 0% 4 −6.32 0.008 Some evidence: behind
Sales, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Tandy Leather Factory Inc TLF —150December 12, 2016May 21, 2018
RED Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc RRGB —10November 7, 2024November 7, 2024
United Natural Foods Inc UNFI —10January 6, 2026January 6, 2026

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
January 6, 2026January 2, 2026 UNFI Purchase $573,000 +43.6%not yetnot yet
November 7, 2024November 5, 2024 RRGB Purchase $234,598 −5.2%−33.0%−40.6%
May 21, 2018May 17, 2018 TLF Purchase $156,000 −7.4%−31.1%−31.5%
May 15, 2018May 11, 2018 TLF Purchase $189,200 −5.5%−31.9%−31.7%
May 9, 2018May 7, 2018 TLF Purchase $442,849 −7.2%−30.7%−32.9%
August 31, 2017August 29, 2017 TLF Purchase $41,500 −16.9%−27.6%−27.3%
August 28, 2017August 24, 2017 TLF Purchase $12,379 −16.9%−27.3%−27.3%
June 2, 2017May 31, 2017 TLF Purchase $57,527 −5.0%−24.8%−28.5%
May 12, 2017May 10, 2017 TLF Purchase $99,952 −6.5%−25.8%−24.3%
April 10, 2017April 6, 2017 TLF Purchase $14,211 +5.0%−24.6%−25.7%
April 5, 2017April 3, 2017 TLF Purchase $76,304 +5.2%−25.7%−25.8%
March 30, 2017March 28, 2017 TLF Purchase $285,307 +5.5%−23.7%−22.5%
March 27, 2017March 23, 2017 TLF Purchase $289,138 +6.8%−22.5%−19.9%
March 22, 2017March 20, 2017 TLF Purchase $370,446 +5.7%−19.9%−23.0%
March 15, 2017March 13, 2017 TLF Purchase $3,497,857 +10.0%−16.6%−13.6%
December 14, 2016December 13, 2016 TLF Purchase $51,119 −4.8%−22.8%−19.5%
December 12, 2016December 8, 2016 TLF Purchase $819,459 −9.2%−19.5%−20.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Pappas James C and related entities traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.