Mcmanus Victoria: insider trades

Director at Greenbrier Companies Inc. No open-market purchases and 6 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 28, 2011 to August 28, 2014.

What happened after Mcmanus Victoria’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +24.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 50% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Mcmanus Victoria: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	6	−5.4%	+2.8%	50%	4	−0.95	0.41	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	6	+24.1%	+25.2%	50%	4	−0.15	0.89	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	6	+26.0%	+28.7%	50%	4	−0.14	0.90	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Greenbrier Companies Inc GBX	—	0	6	November 28, 2011	August 28, 2014

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
August 28, 2014	August 27, 2014	GBX	Sale	$337,398	−25.9%	−41.5%	−43.1%
November 13, 2013	November 12, 2013	GBX	Sale	$783,886	+12.1%	+75.8%	+83.5%
November 13, 2013	November 12, 2013	GBX	Sale	$619,265	+12.1%	+75.8%	+83.5%
April 22, 2013	April 22, 2013	GBX	Sale	$314,404	−5.8%	+90.9%	+92.9%
February 8, 2012	February 8, 2012	GBX	Sale	$103,587	−36.5%	−30.9%	−34.4%
November 28, 2011	November 28, 2011	GBX	Sale	$37,765	+11.5%	−25.4%	−26.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Mcmanus Victoria traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.