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Cain Susan O: insider trades

Director at Lithia Motors Inc. No open-market purchases and 17 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 8, 2012 to March 1, 2021.

What happened after Cain Susan O’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +15.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 41% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 17 +1.8% +4.5% 47% 9 0.73 0.49 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 17 +15.7% +8.1% 41% 9 1.33 0.22 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 17 +14.8% +4.1% 41% 9 1.29 0.23 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Lithia Motors Inc LAD —017June 8, 2012March 1, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 1, 2021March 1, 2021 LAD Sale $148,302 −13.5%−21.7%−23.4%
August 19, 2020August 18, 2020 LAD Sale $103,844 −0.3%−6.3%−6.9%
November 12, 2019November 12, 2019 LAD Sale $61,916 −28.7%+45.9%+47.7%
October 29, 2019October 25, 2019 LAD Sale $59,310 −20.1%+38.1%+41.3%
July 30, 2019July 29, 2019 LAD Sale $97,446 +18.9%+67.2%+57.9%
February 19, 2019February 15, 2019 LAD Sale $127,413 +25.6%+23.1%+25.4%
November 29, 2017November 27, 2017 LAD Sale $150,759 −14.5%−34.4%−31.6%
August 8, 2017August 8, 2017 LAD Sale $105,640 +4.5%−33.4%−31.9%
May 10, 2017May 8, 2017 LAD Sale $214,299 +11.5%−9.3%−8.3%
February 22, 2017February 21, 2017 LAD Sale $120,351 −8.5%−3.0%−9.2%
December 2, 2016December 1, 2016 LAD Sale $71,032 −6.0%+8.1%+4.0%
October 27, 2015October 26, 2015 LAD Sale $231,840 −27.3%−30.0%−31.1%
March 11, 2015March 11, 2015 LAD Sale $162,056 +17.9%+3.7%+4.1%
December 9, 2014December 8, 2014 LAD Sale $79,220 +12.2%+47.7%+55.4%
February 25, 2014February 25, 2014 LAD Sale $61,460 +22.4%+33.1%+35.0%
March 6, 2013March 5, 2013 LAD Sale $71,598 +13.8%+29.1%+29.8%
June 8, 2012June 8, 2012 LAD Sale $40,000 +22.3%+109.6%+93.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Cain Susan O traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.