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Bhatt Prat: insider trades

Officer at Cisco. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 19, 2010 to March 24, 2016.

What happened after Bhatt Prat’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −5.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 50% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 10 −0.8% 0.0% 50% 6 −0.11 0.91 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 10 −5.1% −3.3% 50% 6 −0.94 0.39 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 10 −4.7% −1.0% 50% 6 −0.87 0.42 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Cisco CSCO SVP, Corp Controller & CAO010February 19, 2010March 24, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 24, 2016March 22, 2016 CSCO Sale $1,412,000 −0.1%+8.8%+8.0%
March 21, 2016March 18, 2016 CSCO Sale $616,298 +0.2%+8.0%+7.1%
September 12, 2014September 11, 2014 CSCO Sale $970,749 +6.6%+5.1%+6.3%
September 13, 2013September 13, 2013 CSCO Sale $624,285 −21.5%−13.3%−13.5%
May 22, 2013May 21, 2013 CSCO Sale $1,241,544 +1.9%−9.9%−10.3%
September 18, 2012September 14, 2012 CSCO Sale $469,786 +8.0%+11.8%+10.9%
March 20, 2012March 16, 2012 CSCO Sale $29,325 −11.4%−8.9%−2.7%
December 9, 2011December 7, 2011 CSCO Sale $272,593 −4.0%−7.9%−7.8%
August 19, 2011August 17, 2011 CSCO Sale $333,132 +14.4%+1.2%+0.7%
February 19, 2010February 17, 2010 CSCO Sale $12,363 −2.0%−45.8%−45.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bhatt Prat traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.