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Provost Steve: insider trades

Officer at Brinker International, Inc. No open-market purchases and 12 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 7, 2013 to February 3, 2023.

What happened after Provost Steve’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −19.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 75% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 12 −5.2% −9.2% 58% 9 −0.88 0.40 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 12 −19.4% −16.2% 75% 9 −2.20 0.059 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 12 −19.1% −16.3% 75% 9 −2.13 0.065 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Brinker International, Inc EAT EVP & President Maggiano's012March 7, 2013February 3, 2023

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 3, 2023February 2, 2023 EAT Sale $596,561 −9.5%−13.9%−10.9%
February 3, 2021February 2, 2021 EAT Sale $619,200 −10.7%−59.6%−63.4%
August 25, 2020August 24, 2020 EAT Sale $321,399 +28.3%+6.8%+5.2%
August 26, 2019August 22, 2019 EAT Sale $456,760 +8.5%−18.4%−20.2%
November 29, 2018November 28, 2018 EAT Sale $611,235 −14.9%−24.0%−29.2%
June 14, 2018June 13, 2018 EAT Sale $182,003 −8.8%−28.4%−23.4%
May 12, 2017May 11, 2017 EAT Sale $121,165 −19.7%−8.0%−8.8%
November 21, 2016November 18, 2016 EAT Sale $524,436 −29.7%−57.9%−54.7%
August 25, 2016August 24, 2016 EAT Sale $600,160 +1.5%−52.9%−53.5%
September 4, 2015September 3, 2015 EAT Sale $1,080,000 −21.4%−11.3%−12.3%
September 12, 2013September 11, 2013 EAT Sale $397,500 +5.2%+6.4%+9.5%
March 7, 2013March 6, 2013 EAT Sale $948,510 +9.3%+28.2%+31.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Provost Steve traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.