Carlson Randolph K: insider trades

Officer, Other at Cirrus Logic, Inc. No open-market purchases and 18 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 14, 2010 to February 6, 2019.

What happened after Carlson Randolph K’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −5.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 78% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Carlson Randolph K: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	18	−1.4%	−10.6%	67%	10	0.09	0.93	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	18	−5.1%	−16.7%	78%	10	0.02	0.99	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	18	−7.0%	−14.2%	78%	10	−0.18	0.86	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Cirrus Logic, Inc. CRUS	VP of Supply Chain Division	0	18	May 14, 2010	February 6, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
February 6, 2019	February 4, 2019	CRUS	Sale	$406,041	+20.6%	+78.8%	+88.4%
February 15, 2018	February 13, 2018	CRUS	Sale	$305,348	−8.6%	−9.6%	−12.2%
August 10, 2017	August 8, 2017	CRUS	Sale	$3,045,257	−2.7%	−40.4%	−39.5%
May 10, 2017	May 8, 2017	CRUS	Sale	$1,893,600	−16.1%	−55.6%	−51.7%
February 9, 2017	February 7, 2017	CRUS	Sale	$1,000,922	+14.4%	−38.3%	−44.2%
November 17, 2016	November 15, 2016	CRUS	Sale	$389,622	−12.5%	−23.3%	−17.6%
August 9, 2016	August 8, 2016	CRUS	Sale	$383,475	+11.7%	−5.0%	−4.2%
May 4, 2016	May 2, 2016	CRUS	Sale	$438,986	+40.0%	+70.5%	+60.8%
February 23, 2016	February 19, 2016	CRUS	Sale	$328,300	−4.1%	+35.9%	+41.7%
June 1, 2015	May 28, 2015	CRUS	Sale	$151,118	−12.6%	−3.6%	−4.0%
December 1, 2014	November 26, 2014	CRUS	Sale	$198,107	+88.8%	+100.1%	+62.5%
November 7, 2013	November 5, 2013	CRUS	Sale	$246,708	−20.5%	−28.8%	−29.1%
August 10, 2012	August 9, 2012	CRUS	Sale	$262,877	−18.3%	−68.9%	−67.9%
February 7, 2011	February 3, 2011	CRUS	Sale	$59,200	−35.9%	−17.1%	−16.3%
February 2, 2011	January 31, 2011	CRUS	Sale	$94,955	−34.2%	−16.3%	−7.0%
August 19, 2010	August 18, 2010	CRUS	Sale	$28,245	−34.1%	−30.3%	−34.5%
August 4, 2010	August 2, 2010	CRUS	Sale	$51,924	−41.2%	−35.6%	−40.2%
May 14, 2010	May 13, 2010	CRUS	Sale	$11,355	+40.1%	−4.5%	−10.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Carlson Randolph K traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.