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Davanzo Christopher: insider trades

Officer at MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc. No open-market purchases and 27 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 27, 2010 to January 24, 2018.

What happened after Davanzo Christopher’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −14.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 89% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 27 −2.7% −4.8% 67% 8 −1.61 0.15 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 27 −14.2% −16.3% 89% 8 −2.34 0.052 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 27 −14.1% −15.9% 89% 8 −2.09 0.075 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc MSM SVP, Finance and Controller027October 27, 2010January 24, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
January 24, 2018January 23, 2018 MSM Sale $1,055,260 −5.8%−9.2%−6.6%
January 12, 2018January 11, 2018 MSM Sale $1,125,458 −1.8%−7.9%−8.5%
February 22, 2017February 21, 2017 MSM Sale $310,381 −18.6%−29.8%−30.5%
February 2, 2017January 31, 2017 MSM Sale $517,500 −17.4%−28.1%−32.2%
November 23, 2016November 22, 2016 MSM Sale $337,647 +5.9%−25.6%−24.4%
November 16, 2016November 15, 2016 MSM Sale $250,500 +17.2%−21.9%−22.7%
April 29, 2016April 27, 2016 MSM Sale $161,614 −10.6%+1.5%+4.1%
August 20, 2014August 19, 2014 MSM Sale $188,229 −11.9%−20.3%−22.9%
May 2, 2014May 1, 2014 MSM Sale $42,762 −7.8%−28.9%−31.2%
April 24, 2014April 23, 2014 MSM Sale $21,205 −7.3%−29.7%−30.0%
January 13, 2014January 10, 2014 MSM Sale $60,860 −1.2%−21.2%−20.8%
January 10, 2014January 9, 2014 MSM Sale $205,989 +0.9%−21.5%−19.4%
May 16, 2013May 14, 2013 MSM Sale $184,646 −5.9%−6.4%−6.7%
May 8, 2013May 7, 2013 MSM Sale $15,266 −5.7%−4.4%−5.4%
May 6, 2013May 3, 2013 MSM Sale $159,920 −2.5%−5.4%−4.3%
January 18, 2013January 17, 2013 MSM Sale $55,677 −4.8%−10.7%−9.0%
January 14, 2013January 11, 2013 MSM Sale $114,034 −1.3%−8.4%−11.9%
November 19, 2012November 16, 2012 MSM Sale $64,120 +11.6%−20.1%−20.2%
November 13, 2012November 12, 2012 MSM Sale $127,696 +12.3%−23.4%−21.6%
November 5, 2012November 2, 2012 MSM Sale $292,200 +5.9%−17.7%−17.0%
November 2, 2012November 1, 2012 MSM Sale $165,172 +5.2%−16.6%−19.7%
July 30, 2012July 27, 2012 MSM Sale $175,000 +5.3%−1.8%−6.8%
April 19, 2012April 18, 2012 MSM Sale $80,170 −13.3%−16.3%−15.9%
April 16, 2012April 13, 2012 MSM Sale $78,020 −16.9%−15.7%−13.4%
November 1, 2011October 28, 2011 MSM Sale $352,100 +7.4%−7.9%−3.5%
April 21, 2011April 20, 2011 MSM Sale $141,260 −7.1%+0.5%+6.6%
October 27, 2010October 26, 2010 MSM Sale $73,176 −4.9%+14.7%+14.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Davanzo Christopher traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.