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Rasmussen Hans John: insider trades

Officer at Coeur Mining, Inc. 1 open-market purchase and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 17, 2016 to November 15, 2021.

Would copying Rasmussen Hans John’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. After their sales, the shares moved −47.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 89% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 9 −9.5% −17.0% 78% 4 −2.09 0.13 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 9 −47.5% −56.6% 89% 4 −16.27 <0.001 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 9 −47.9% −56.9% 89% 4 −15.32 <0.001 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Coeur Mining, Inc. CDE SVP, Exploration110March 17, 2016November 15, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
November 15, 2021November 11, 2021 CDE Sale $146,000 −17.0%−35.4%−38.5%
August 2, 2021July 30, 2021 CDE Sale $133,700 −12.1%−54.0%−53.2%
February 26, 2021February 24, 2021 CDE Sale $100,600 +10.1%−64.7%−67.3%
March 17, 2020March 16, 2020 CDE Purchase $35,000 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 7, 2019March 6, 2019 CDE Sale $35,850 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 16, 2018March 16, 2018 CDE Sale $81,500 −1.2%−46.3%−47.9%
September 15, 2017September 15, 2017 CDE Sale $92,500 −24.8%−56.6%−56.9%
August 12, 2016August 12, 2016 CDE Sale $40,375 −41.3%−66.5%−66.1%
August 11, 2016August 10, 2016 CDE Sale $61,275 −35.8%−66.1%−65.9%
July 29, 2016July 29, 2016 CDE Sale $52,155 −28.2%−62.6%−61.9%
March 17, 2016March 17, 2016 CDE Sale $10,520 +64.8%+24.5%+26.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Rasmussen Hans John traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.