Corey Steven N.: insider trades

Officer at Saul Centers, Inc. No open-market purchases and 11 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 24, 2014 to August 21, 2018.

What happened after Corey Steven N.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −15.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Corey Steven N.: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	11	−4.1%	−3.9%	82%	5	−4.28	0.013	Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report	11	−15.3%	−19.8%	100%	5	−3.44	0.026	Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade	11	−15.2%	−17.4%	100%	5	−3.73	0.020	Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Saul Centers, Inc. BFS	Senior VP - Office Leasing	0	11	June 24, 2014	August 21, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
August 21, 2018	August 20, 2018	BFS	Sale	$222,225	−3.5%	−13.0%	−13.5%
October 10, 2017	October 6, 2017	BFS	Sale	$711,716	−16.9%	−25.7%	−28.9%
July 11, 2017	July 7, 2017	BFS	Sale	$295,200	+5.2%	−19.8%	−20.5%
September 6, 2016	September 2, 2016	BFS	Sale	$16,429	−7.6%	−21.8%	−21.0%
August 11, 2016	August 10, 2016	BFS	Sale	$162,736	−3.9%	−20.0%	−20.8%
August 9, 2016	August 5, 2016	BFS	Sale	$320,070	−6.4%	−20.8%	−19.9%
July 7, 2016	July 1, 2016	BFS	Sale	$248,313	−1.5%	−21.9%	−17.4%
May 11, 2016	May 10, 2016	BFS	Sale	$1,202,538	+9.5%	−13.3%	−10.2%
January 8, 2015	January 7, 2015	BFS	Sale	$508,200	−9.1%	−6.6%	−8.7%
June 30, 2014	June 26, 2014	BFS	Sale	$218,698	−3.5%	−1.3%	−3.3%
June 24, 2014	June 20, 2014	BFS	Sale	$418,600	−6.9%	−4.2%	−3.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Corey Steven N. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.