undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Clark Darren: insider trades

Chief executive at R F Industries LTD. 1 open-market purchase and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 22, 2012 to September 20, 2013.

Would copying Clark Darren’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. After their sales, the shares moved −23.8% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 90% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 10 −0.4% −9.2% 60% 1 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 10 −23.8% −21.7% 90% 1 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 10 −24.6% −23.5% 100% 1 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
R F Industries LTD RFIL CEO of Subsidiary of Issuer110March 22, 2012September 20, 2013

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
September 20, 2013September 19, 2013 RFIL Sale $356,887 +15.0%−47.3%−43.6%
September 19, 2013September 17, 2013 RFIL Sale $644,238 +28.0%−47.6%−42.4%
September 17, 2013September 13, 2013 RFIL Sale $436,443 +22.5%−41.9%−37.9%
April 5, 2013April 3, 2013 RFIL Sale $686,811 −10.9%−20.2%−11.1%
April 3, 2013April 1, 2013 RFIL Sale $50,100 −9.8%−12.8%−21.7%
March 29, 2013March 28, 2013 RFIL Sale $352,737 −15.3%−21.7%−24.0%
March 28, 2013March 27, 2013 RFIL Sale $100,200 −15.3%−21.7%−27.8%
March 27, 2013March 25, 2013 RFIL Sale $116,150 −17.4%−24.0%−23.1%
March 20, 2013March 14, 2013 RFIL Sale $307,634 −8.6%−11.8%−7.5%
January 28, 2013January 23, 2013 RFIL Sale $130,205 +8.1%+11.3%−6.7%
March 22, 2012March 20, 2012 RFIL Purchase $25,667 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Clark Darren traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.