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R/c Energy Gp IV, LLC: insider trades

Director, 10% owner at 3 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 9, 2011 to October 8, 2020.

What happened after R/c Energy Gp IV, LLC’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −61.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 83% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 6 −38.1% −54.0% 67% 4 −0.78 0.49 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 6 −61.7% −88.1% 83% 4 −1.22 0.31 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 6 −65.6% −90.0% 83% 4 −1.46 0.24 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Amplify Energy Corp. AMPY —010October 5, 2015February 4, 2016
Liberty Energy Inc. LBRT —02July 12, 2019October 8, 2020
Permianville Royalty Trust PVL —01November 9, 2011November 9, 2011

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 8, 2020October 7, 2020 LBRT Sale $49,507,500 +36.0%+38.3%+24.8%
July 12, 2019July 11, 2019 LBRT Sale $116,880,000 −36.2%−69.7%−71.7%
February 4, 2016February 2, 2016 AMPY Sale $244,426 not yetnot yetnot yet
February 2, 2016January 29, 2016 AMPY Sale $253,001 not yetnot yetnot yet
January 19, 2016January 14, 2016 AMPY Sale $40,489 not yetnot yetnot yet
January 14, 2016January 12, 2016 AMPY Sale $81,133 not yetnot yetnot yet
November 25, 2015November 23, 2015 AMPY Sale $48,429 not yetnot yetnot yet
November 19, 2015November 17, 2015 AMPY Sale $65,397 not yetnot yetnot yet
November 9, 2015November 5, 2015 AMPY Sale $42,022 not yetnot yetnot yet
October 13, 2015October 9, 2015 AMPY Sale $115,892 −78.7%−106.9%−108.8%
October 9, 2015October 7, 2015 AMPY Sale $825,892 −78.8%−106.4%−108.3%
October 5, 2015October 1, 2015 AMPY Sale $403,513 −71.8%−109.2%−112.9%
November 9, 2011November 8, 2011 PVL Sale $290,400,000 +0.8%−16.4%−16.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why R/c Energy Gp IV, LLC traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.