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Grissen David: insider trades

Officer at Marriott International. No open-market purchases and 23 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 23, 2012 to June 9, 2020.

What happened after Grissen David’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −1.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 52% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 23 −3.5% −6.0% 70% 8 −0.89 0.40 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 23 −1.6% −9.4% 52% 8 0.60 0.57 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 23 −2.6% −11.1% 57% 8 0.48 0.65 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Marriott International MAR Group President, Americas023July 23, 2012June 9, 2020

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
June 9, 2020June 5, 2020 MAR Sale $4,187,014 −7.6%+5.4%−2.4%
May 20, 2020May 19, 2020 MAR Sale $1,856,200 −12.3%+9.2%+10.8%
December 17, 2019December 16, 2019 MAR Sale $2,009,321 −22.3%−31.3%−29.4%
July 1, 2019June 28, 2019 MAR Sale $2,256,591 −11.7%−44.8%−43.6%
June 27, 2019June 26, 2019 MAR Sale $1,855,300 −14.9%−43.6%−45.3%
June 21, 2019June 20, 2019 MAR Sale $1,872,929 −9.7%−41.4%−40.8%
June 18, 2019June 17, 2019 MAR Sale $1,022,341 −6.9%−39.4%−38.8%
May 23, 2019May 21, 2019 MAR Sale $871,695 −0.8%−31.1%−33.1%
December 8, 2017December 7, 2017 MAR Sale $273,214 +6.4%−14.9%−14.1%
May 25, 2017May 24, 2017 MAR Sale $273,554 −7.2%+13.9%+16.1%
February 23, 2017February 21, 2017 MAR Sale $1,508,884 +20.2%+44.5%+47.0%
May 13, 2016May 12, 2016 MAR Sale $616,352 +1.6%+37.6%+35.1%
May 10, 2016May 6, 2016 MAR Sale $1,603,764 −1.2%+33.3%+22.6%
September 30, 2015September 29, 2015 MAR Sale $198,270 −10.8%−17.4%−13.0%
March 24, 2015March 23, 2015 MAR Sale $1,026,216 −6.8%−13.6%−14.2%
September 12, 2014September 11, 2014 MAR Sale $1,837,851 +7.4%+1.7%+3.3%
March 10, 2014March 7, 2014 MAR Sale $1,230,656 +11.5%+40.4%+39.4%
November 5, 2013November 4, 2013 MAR Sale $1,203,598 +4.7%+47.6%+48.4%
May 17, 2013May 15, 2013 MAR Sale $664,500 −6.0%+23.2%+18.6%
March 29, 2013March 28, 2013 MAR Sale $631,200 −6.0%+14.3%+12.5%
September 7, 2012September 6, 2012 MAR Sale $1,747,432 −8.3%−9.4%−11.1%
July 24, 2012July 23, 2012 MAR Sale $1,275,160 −1.4%−11.1%−12.1%
July 23, 2012July 20, 2012 MAR Sale $496,438 +1.0%−9.6%−15.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Grissen David traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.