Mctavish Julia W: insider trades

Officer at Northwest Bancshares, Inc. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 22, 2012 to February 26, 2021.

What happened after Mctavish Julia W’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −5.8% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 70% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Mctavish Julia W: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	10	−0.4%	0.0%	50%	8	−0.18	0.86	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	10	−5.8%	−9.5%	70%	8	−1.31	0.23	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	10	−6.1%	−8.1%	60%	8	−1.36	0.22	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. NWBI	EVP, Human Resources	0	10	August 22, 2012	February 26, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
February 26, 2021	February 24, 2021	NWBI	Sale	$683,850	−7.9%	−9.4%	−6.8%
December 15, 2020	December 11, 2020	NWBI	Sale	$111,690	+16.3%	−9.6%	−12.0%
January 25, 2019	January 24, 2019	NWBI	Sale	$175,501	−12.7%	−34.4%	−32.6%
November 17, 2016	November 15, 2016	NWBI	Sale	$335,026	−6.5%	−27.1%	−28.3%
May 31, 2016	May 27, 2016	NWBI	Sale	$36,900	+1.1%	−10.2%	−9.4%
December 7, 2015	December 4, 2015	NWBI	Sale	$23,449	+0.7%	+33.0%	+28.8%
August 18, 2015	August 14, 2015	NWBI	Sale	$19,050	+6.9%	+16.4%	+16.1%
April 28, 2014	April 24, 2014	NWBI	Sale	$21,287	−10.2%	−16.8%	−19.0%
May 23, 2013	May 22, 2013	NWBI	Sale	$35,401	+9.0%	+1.5%	+1.3%
August 22, 2012	August 20, 2012	NWBI	Sale	$25,125	−0.6%	−1.6%	+1.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Mctavish Julia W traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.