undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Parkinson Ray: insider trades

Officer at Kaiser Aluminum Corp. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 14, 2013 to May 17, 2024.

What happened after Parkinson Ray’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −16.0% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 69% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −7.6% −9.6% 77% 9 −2.61 0.031 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −16.0% −15.5% 69% 9 −2.46 0.039 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −14.8% −14.6% 62% 9 −2.08 0.071 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Kaiser Aluminum Corp KALU SVP - AE & Innovation013August 14, 2013May 17, 2024

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 17, 2024May 15, 2024 KALU Sale $327,125 −35.2%−38.6%−38.7%
August 4, 2023August 3, 2023 KALU Sale $376,978 −20.5%−28.2%−26.2%
May 20, 2021May 18, 2021 KALU Sale $175,235 −9.8%−15.5%−17.9%
March 16, 2021March 11, 2021 KALU Sale $187,080 +4.3%−32.9%−34.5%
November 6, 2019November 4, 2019 KALU Sale $283,835 −16.2%−55.7%−50.2%
October 30, 2019October 28, 2019 KALU Sale $152,054 −12.9%−48.8%−53.9%
May 16, 2018May 14, 2018 KALU Sale $342,608 −3.6%−17.7%−14.6%
July 25, 2017July 24, 2017 KALU Sale $175,410 −1.4%+1.5%+0.8%
May 15, 2017May 11, 2017 KALU Sale $161,500 +12.3%+15.7%+17.4%
March 31, 2017March 29, 2017 KALU Sale $93,792 +11.9%+15.9%+18.2%
August 4, 2015July 31, 2015 KALU Sale $154,656 −3.6%−4.9%−5.0%
August 4, 2014July 29, 2014 KALU Sale $153,000 −14.9%−0.1%+7.3%
August 14, 2013August 12, 2013 KALU Sale $153,295 −9.6%+1.7%+5.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Parkinson Ray traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.