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Vella Matthew: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at Acacia Research Corp. No open-market purchases and 14 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 24, 2012 to May 22, 2015.

What happened after Vella Matthew’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −51.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 −11.9% −6.7% 71% 4 −1.39 0.26 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 −51.9% −49.2% 100% 4 −9.00 0.003 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 −51.8% −51.0% 100% 4 −14.05 <0.001 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Acacia Research Corp ACTG CEO & President014October 24, 2012May 22, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 22, 2015May 20, 2015 ACTG Sale $98,050 −3.6%−47.9%−52.5%
November 21, 2014November 13, 2014 ACTG Sale $343,300 −34.8%−72.2%−67.6%
May 21, 2014May 20, 2014 ACTG Sale $362,779 +13.8%−42.6%−42.0%
October 24, 2013October 22, 2013 ACTG Sale $38,472 −12.7%−1.0%−12.5%
August 27, 2013August 23, 2013 ACTG Sale $105,134 −40.6%−39.2%−42.4%
August 2, 2013July 31, 2013 ACTG Sale $90,771 −35.9%−37.4%−39.6%
July 24, 2013July 22, 2013 ACTG Sale $101,321 −37.4%−43.4%−49.6%
May 16, 2013May 15, 2013 ACTG Sale $118,496 −6.8%−49.7%−48.3%
April 24, 2013April 22, 2013 ACTG Sale $41,360 −6.6%−48.7%−44.1%
February 27, 2013February 25, 2013 ACTG Sale $111,066 −20.4%−69.0%−74.2%
December 10, 2012December 6, 2012 ACTG Sale $92,454 +6.7%−74.2%−71.8%
December 3, 2012November 30, 2012 ACTG Sale $79,755 +9.7%−73.3%−62.3%
November 28, 2012November 26, 2012 ACTG Sale $98,877 +7.2%−64.3%−60.7%
October 24, 2012October 22, 2012 ACTG Sale $57,029 −5.1%−63.3%−57.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Vella Matthew traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.