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Levine Paul M.: insider trades

Officer at Zillow Group, Inc. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 5, 2015 to May 19, 2017.

What happened after Levine Paul M.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +17.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 18% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 11 +4.5% +3.8% 46% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 11 +17.7% +16.3% 18% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 11 +17.6% +17.5% 18% 3 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Zillow Group, Inc. Z President of Trulia013March 5, 2015May 19, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 19, 2017May 18, 2017 Z Sale $274,347 −8.3%+9.7%+7.6%
May 11, 2017May 9, 2017 Z Sale $12,367,825 −7.1%+11.1%+17.5%
February 21, 2017February 21, 2017 Z Sale $68,546 +16.5%+16.3%+18.3%
February 17, 2017February 16, 2017 Z Sale $90,533 +15.2%+18.3%+14.5%
November 18, 2016November 17, 2016 Z Sale $247,603 −10.7%−6.5%−8.1%
August 30, 2016August 30, 2016 Z Sale $1,254,739 +4.2%+0.9%−0.5%
August 18, 2016August 18, 2016 Z Sale $235,847 +3.8%−2.8%+0.5%
May 19, 2016May 18, 2016 Z Sale $1,041,457 +18.7%+29.5%+26.4%
February 19, 2016February 18, 2016 Z Sale $678,181 +32.9%+52.5%+55.2%
November 19, 2015November 18, 2015 Z Sale $884,207 −13.0%+36.1%+37.2%
August 19, 2015August 18, 2015 Z Sale $52,113 −2.4%+29.2%+24.6%
May 15, 2015May 14, 2015 Z Sale $1,019,936 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 5, 2015March 4, 2015 Z Sale $1,509,901 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Levine Paul M. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.