Welzenbach Mark Joseph: insider trades

Officer at Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. No open-market purchases and 19 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 8, 2013 to November 7, 2022.

What happened after Welzenbach Mark Joseph’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −1.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 53% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Welzenbach Mark Joseph: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	19	−2.3%	−0.8%	63%	10	−0.90	0.39	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	19	−1.6%	−0.4%	53%	10	−0.64	0.54	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	19	−0.9%	+1.3%	42%	10	−0.54	0.60	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. THG	Executive Vice President	0	19	August 8, 2013	November 7, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
November 7, 2022	November 4, 2022	THG	Sale	$380,127	−5.9%	−32.5%	−35.2%
February 8, 2022	February 4, 2022	THG	Sale	$2,095,223	+13.6%	+11.9%	+13.5%
August 3, 2021	July 30, 2021	THG	Sale	$828,054	−9.9%	−0.4%	+5.9%
May 5, 2021	May 3, 2021	THG	Sale	$649,464	−9.4%	+8.1%	+6.5%
February 12, 2020	February 11, 2020	THG	Sale	$902,366	−22.6%	−32.9%	−32.3%
February 10, 2020	February 6, 2020	THG	Sale	$1,355,977	−19.8%	−32.3%	−34.4%
February 11, 2019	February 7, 2019	THG	Sale	$255,372	−0.8%	−4.6%	−1.1%
February 5, 2019	February 1, 2019	THG	Sale	$836,796	+1.6%	+0.9%	+5.0%
May 8, 2018	May 4, 2018	THG	Sale	$1,760,782	+0.3%	+3.0%	+1.3%
November 8, 2017	November 7, 2017	THG	Sale	$501,063	−1.4%	−2.8%	−3.4%
November 7, 2017	November 3, 2017	THG	Sale	$519,450	−0.5%	−2.7%	+0.7%
August 10, 2017	August 9, 2017	THG	Sale	$940,224	+1.9%	+11.6%	+11.0%
February 28, 2017	February 27, 2017	THG	Sale	$902,900	−8.9%	+6.2%	+6.9%
February 18, 2016	February 16, 2016	THG	Sale	$513,152	−3.2%	−14.2%	−13.6%
August 3, 2015	July 31, 2015	THG	Sale	$811,200	+5.1%	−3.8%	−1.7%
May 7, 2015	May 5, 2015	THG	Sale	$603,182	+16.6%	+23.2%	+24.3%
February 9, 2015	February 6, 2015	THG	Sale	$810,391	−3.7%	+24.8%	+23.7%
May 5, 2014	May 2, 2014	THG	Sale	$746,475	−0.8%	+9.8%	+8.9%
August 8, 2013	August 7, 2013	THG	Sale	$433,184	+3.7%	−2.9%	−3.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Welzenbach Mark Joseph traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.