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Nielsen James Leroy: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. No open-market purchases and 12 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 27, 2013 to March 6, 2019.

What happened after Nielsen James Leroy’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −26.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 12 −7.0% −9.2% 67% 7 −2.50 0.047 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report 12 −26.1% −28.2% 100% 7 −4.47 0.004 Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 12 −27.3% −26.8% 100% 7 −4.26 0.005 Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM Interim Co-CEO,President & COO012November 27, 2013March 6, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 6, 2019March 4, 2019 SFM Sale $396,016 −15.4%−34.8%−38.3%
September 12, 2018September 10, 2018 SFM Sale $13,651,575 −5.1%−33.0%−37.7%
July 3, 2018July 2, 2018 SFM Sale $25,665 +13.0%−26.9%−28.3%
March 14, 2018March 12, 2018 SFM Sale $48,963 −13.2%−11.9%−14.3%
March 7, 2018March 5, 2018 SFM Sale $266,307 −13.8%−11.4%−12.4%
December 1, 2017December 1, 2017 SFM Sale $2,548,700 +1.2%−3.6%−1.4%
March 8, 2016March 7, 2016 SFM Sale $29,522 −20.5%−57.2%−58.1%
March 6, 2015March 5, 2015 SFM Sale $27,254 −22.6%−19.3%−17.0%
November 20, 2014November 18, 2014 SFM Sale $1,256,400 +12.8%−29.6%−25.2%
August 15, 2014August 13, 2014 SFM Sale $3,619,402 +0.1%−36.8%−38.7%
April 1, 2014March 28, 2014 SFM Sale $3,108,704 −19.4%−17.5%−22.5%
November 27, 2013November 26, 2013 SFM Sale $3,686,577 −1.1%−31.3%−33.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Nielsen James Leroy traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.