Forrest Frank R.: insider trades

Officer at Fifth Third Bancorp. No open-market purchases and 9 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 4, 2014 to December 12, 2019.

What happened after Forrest Frank R.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −7.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 78% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Forrest Frank R.: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	9	−6.4%	−5.2%	56%	6	−1.63	0.16	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	9	−7.6%	−5.7%	78%	6	−0.68	0.53	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	9	−6.2%	−6.1%	78%	6	−0.43	0.69	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Fifth Third Bancorp FITB	EVP & Chief Risk Officer	0	9	November 4, 2014	December 12, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
December 12, 2019	December 10, 2019	FITB	Sale	$228,975	−34.7%	−26.7%	−23.4%
March 12, 2019	March 8, 2019	FITB	Sale	$685,620	−5.2%	−31.0%	−30.8%
February 16, 2018	February 14, 2018	FITB	Sale	$960,780	−7.6%	−18.3%	−20.9%
February 12, 2018	February 8, 2018	FITB	Sale	$154,277	+4.1%	−21.0%	−19.1%
August 22, 2017	August 18, 2017	FITB	Sale	$183,575	+0.9%	−5.7%	−4.0%
May 1, 2017	April 27, 2017	FITB	Sale	$328,096	+6.6%	+24.5%	+26.4%
November 15, 2016	November 10, 2016	FITB	Sale	$430,475	+2.6%	−4.2%	−2.2%
November 25, 2015	November 24, 2015	FITB	Sale	$137,155	−16.3%	+19.0%	+24.2%
November 4, 2014	October 31, 2014	FITB	Sale	$163,603	−7.9%	−5.2%	−6.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Forrest Frank R. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.