undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Select Equity Group, L.P.: insider trades

Director, 10% owner at Shake Shack Inc. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 18, 2015 to October 26, 2018.

What happened after Select Equity Group, L.P.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −4.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 73% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 −4.7% −4.3% 60% 4 −2.53 0.085 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 −4.2% −16.0% 73% 4 0.48 0.66 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 −5.2% −19.1% 67% 4 0.42 0.70 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Shake Shack Inc. SHAK —015December 18, 2015October 26, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 26, 2018October 24, 2018 SHAK Sale $3,813,373 −7.5%+48.4%+51.3%
October 12, 2018October 10, 2018 SHAK Sale $2,500,622 −15.1%+44.9%+51.6%
June 13, 2018June 11, 2018 SHAK Sale $8,213,024 −17.0%−2.2%+0.5%
January 5, 2018January 3, 2018 SHAK Sale $2,353,988 +3.7%+17.4%+3.2%
May 23, 2017May 19, 2017 SHAK Sale $1,959,826 −19.9%+38.6%+39.2%
September 14, 2016September 12, 2016 SHAK Sale $1,233,240 +5.0%−26.0%−27.7%
August 26, 2016August 24, 2016 SHAK Sale $2,965,513 +3.1%−27.5%−26.6%
August 16, 2016August 12, 2016 SHAK Sale $6,049,044 +5.2%−26.7%−29.6%
June 6, 2016June 2, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,696,500 −7.2%−16.0%−19.7%
June 1, 2016May 27, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,665,500 −11.6%−19.7%−20.1%
May 18, 2016May 16, 2016 SHAK Sale $2,741,000 −4.3%−9.9%−17.4%
March 30, 2016March 28, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,118,500 −2.4%−27.7%−19.1%
March 24, 2016March 22, 2016 SHAK Sale $4,965,500 +7.6%−19.1%−22.1%
March 21, 2016March 17, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,144,000 +6.1%−22.1%−24.2%
December 18, 2015December 16, 2015 SHAK Sale $1,125,622 −15.4%−15.2%−16.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Select Equity Group, L.P. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.