West W Gilbert: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at 2 companies we cover. 1 open-market purchase and 19 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 30, 2015 to May 1, 2024.

Would copying West W Gilbert’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. Only 1 purchase has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on May 2, 2024 into $14,178 by November 2, 2026, +15.1% a year. The copy held shares only 40% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $12,061, +7.8% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $15,421, +19.0% a year). Beta against the index was 0.63. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was +10.7% against the S&P 500 (median +10.7%), and 100% beat it. After their sales, the shares moved −13.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 84% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Copying West W GilbertS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying West W Gilbert’s open-market purchases from May 2, 2024, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.

Return a year, copying: +15.1%
S&P 500, same days invested: +7.8% (held throughout +19.0%)
Time in shares: 40%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500): 0.45 (0.90)
Biggest drop (S&P 500): −56% (−19%)
Market sensitivity (beta): 0.63
Purchases copied: 1

Trade by trade

West W Gilbert: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	1	−31.9%	−31.9%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	1	−57.7%	−57.7%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	1	+10.7%	+10.7%	100%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	19	−5.3%	−1.1%	63%	6	−1.19	0.29	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	19	−13.9%	−10.7%	84%	6	−2.51	0.054	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	19	−14.7%	−11.2%	84%	6	−2.54	0.052	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Delta Air Lines DAL	Sr. EVP & COO	0	19	July 30, 2015	February 7, 2020
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc HTZ	CEO	1	0	May 1, 2024	May 1, 2024

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
May 1, 2024	April 30, 2024	HTZ	Purchase	$1,115,000	−31.9%	+10.7%	not yet
February 7, 2020	February 5, 2020	DAL	Sale	$514,866	−49.5%	−44.6%	−48.2%
July 22, 2019	July 19, 2019	DAL	Sale	$647,823	−13.4%	−68.6%	−67.4%
April 12, 2019	April 11, 2019	DAL	Sale	$436,868	+6.7%	−54.2%	−56.7%
February 22, 2019	February 21, 2019	DAL	Sale	$1,854,360	+5.0%	−11.6%	−6.2%
February 11, 2019	February 8, 2019	DAL	Sale	$1,060,290	+8.3%	−3.0%	−8.6%
July 30, 2018	July 26, 2018	DAL	Sale	$607,140	+3.9%	+6.8%	+10.2%
July 19, 2018	July 18, 2018	DAL	Sale	$526,510	+3.6%	+15.2%	+10.6%
July 16, 2018	July 13, 2018	DAL	Sale	$757,050	+3.8%	+17.1%	+18.3%
April 19, 2018	April 18, 2018	DAL	Sale	$948,750	−11.0%	−4.1%	−1.2%
February 5, 2018	February 2, 2018	DAL	Sale	$504,540	−0.4%	−5.0%	−6.2%
May 30, 2017	May 26, 2017	DAL	Sale	$1,318,832	−6.4%	−1.6%	−4.0%
February 16, 2017	February 15, 2017	DAL	Sale	$800,124	−7.0%	−13.1%	−12.8%
February 13, 2017	February 9, 2017	DAL	Sale	$492,000	−3.5%	−10.7%	−11.2%
November 10, 2016	November 9, 2016	DAL	Sale	$519,159	−1.1%	−14.9%	−11.4%
May 19, 2016	May 18, 2016	DAL	Sale	$528,000	−21.1%	−4.4%	−7.3%
February 24, 2016	February 23, 2016	DAL	Sale	$1,153,731	−18.9%	−19.3%	−19.6%
January 26, 2016	January 25, 2016	DAL	Sale	$203,627	−13.8%	−8.8%	−14.5%
October 20, 2015	October 19, 2015	DAL	Sale	$1,023,360	−0.1%	−23.2%	−27.7%
July 30, 2015	July 29, 2015	DAL	Sale	$540,047	+14.5%	−15.2%	−14.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why West W Gilbert traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.