Kirkland Christopher R: insider trades

Director at Simmons First National Corp. No open-market purchases and 41 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 31, 2015 to December 7, 2017.

What happened after Kirkland Christopher R’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −0.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 51% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Kirkland Christopher R: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	41	−5.1%	−13.5%	66%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	41	−0.1%	−0.5%	51%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	41	+0.1%	−0.5%	54%	2	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Simmons First National Corp SFNC	—	0	41	July 31, 2015	December 7, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
December 7, 2017	December 6, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$2,159,136	+6.3%	−5.5%	−2.6%
December 6, 2017	December 4, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$9,137,600	+5.1%	−5.3%	−7.8%
December 4, 2017	November 30, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$9,082,400	+3.3%	−5.1%	−2.4%
September 28, 2017	September 26, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$1,829,130	−7.7%	−17.1%	−9.8%
September 26, 2017	September 22, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$2,750,000	−6.2%	−14.3%	−4.6%
September 22, 2017	September 20, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$2,755,900	+0.9%	−5.9%	−1.6%
September 20, 2017	September 18, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$1,647,222	+0.1%	−1.9%	−1.4%
July 24, 2017	July 20, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$30,085	+6.4%	−4.5%	+4.2%
June 13, 2017	June 9, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$1,404,205	−0.7%	+4.6%	+3.5%
May 3, 2017	May 1, 2017	SFNC	Sale	$329,450	−5.9%	−1.3%	+1.0%
December 23, 2015	December 22, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$510,000	−12.8%	+10.7%	+10.0%
December 22, 2015	December 18, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,020,800	−12.3%	+12.3%	+10.1%
December 18, 2015	December 17, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$532,900	−15.4%	+10.0%	+6.4%
December 17, 2015	December 15, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,045,700	−13.7%	+10.1%	+12.9%
December 16, 2015	December 14, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$516,300	−14.9%	+6.4%	+13.3%
December 14, 2015	December 10, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,049,700	−14.2%	+12.9%	+15.6%
December 10, 2015	December 8, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,078,200	−14.4%	+11.8%	+10.3%
December 8, 2015	December 4, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,122,400	−14.7%	+13.1%	+3.8%
December 4, 2015	December 2, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,141,600	−17.1%	+7.8%	+1.8%
December 2, 2015	November 30, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,145,300	−17.8%	+0.6%	−1.8%
November 30, 2015	November 25, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,133,200	−18.8%	−0.6%	−0.5%
November 25, 2015	November 24, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$556,000	−19.3%	−1.9%	−0.1%
November 24, 2015	November 20, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,124,500	−20.3%	−0.5%	+1.6%
November 20, 2015	November 19, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$555,600	−19.9%	+0.7%	+2.5%
November 19, 2015	November 18, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$555,100	−19.2%	+1.6%	−2.0%
November 18, 2015	November 16, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,095,900	−18.9%	+2.5%	+1.2%
November 16, 2015	November 13, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$548,700	−18.7%	−2.3%	−1.4%
November 13, 2015	November 12, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$553,800	−18.9%	+1.2%	−3.9%
November 12, 2015	November 10, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,124,900	−19.0%	−1.4%	−10.6%
November 10, 2015	November 6, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,110,800	−17.5%	−9.5%	−11.8%
November 9, 2015	November 5, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$534,700	−18.1%	−10.6%	−9.7%
November 5, 2015	November 4, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$520,700	−15.3%	−11.8%	−7.2%
November 4, 2015	November 2, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,046,700	−13.5%	−9.7%	−8.0%
August 19, 2015	August 17, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$406,829	+25.6%	+1.4%	+1.7%
August 18, 2015	August 14, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$222,500	+25.7%	+2.0%	+1.3%
August 14, 2015	August 13, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$222,500	+24.8%	+1.7%	+1.5%
August 12, 2015	August 10, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$636,730	+28.5%	+1.5%	+0.1%
August 7, 2015	August 5, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,542,602	+23.3%	+0.1%	−3.6%
August 5, 2015	August 3, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$649,906	+15.5%	−0.9%	−3.7%
August 3, 2015	July 31, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$648,711	+16.1%	−3.0%	−3.3%
July 31, 2015	July 28, 2015	SFNC	Sale	$1,120,028	+14.3%	−3.7%	−1.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Kirkland Christopher R traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.