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Bailey Scott Andrew: insider trades

Director at Zumiez Inc. No open-market purchases and 8 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 7, 2016 to March 31, 2021.

What happened after Bailey Scott Andrew’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −18.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 8 −5.4% −5.3% 63% 5 −0.72 0.51 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 8 −18.2% −17.6% 100% 5 −3.46 0.026 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 8 −18.2% −17.0% 100% 5 −3.88 0.018 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Zumiez Inc ZUMZ —08December 7, 2016March 31, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 31, 2021March 31, 2021 ZUMZ Sale $46,208 +10.8%−26.4%−24.2%
December 14, 2020December 14, 2020 ZUMZ Sale $38,000 +11.4%−4.3%−3.3%
September 14, 2020September 14, 2020 ZUMZ Sale $67,804 +19.3%−3.6%−12.3%
December 9, 2019December 9, 2019 ZUMZ Sale $41,270 −25.6%−9.7%−12.8%
September 30, 2019September 23, 2019 ZUMZ Sale $61,440 −0.4%−27.9%−20.1%
April 17, 2019April 12, 2019 ZUMZ Sale $155,277 −10.2%−22.3%−19.8%
December 7, 2017December 4, 2017 ZUMZ Sale $162,742 −10.4%−13.0%−14.2%
December 7, 2016December 5, 2016 ZUMZ Sale $77,781 −38.0%−38.6%−38.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bailey Scott Andrew traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.