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Gulati Sameer: insider trades

Officer at Happen, Inc. No open-market purchases and 17 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 29, 2016 to October 27, 2017.

What happened after Gulati Sameer’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −45.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 −11.3% −7.8% 64% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 −45.9% −48.0% 100% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 −46.3% −48.8% 100% 2 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Happen, Inc. HAPN Chief Operations Officer017June 29, 2016October 27, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 27, 2017October 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $47,100 −46.0%−51.2%−51.3%
September 27, 2017September 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $49,009 −40.6%−56.1%−57.7%
August 29, 2017August 28, 2017 HAPN Sale $105,759 −33.9%−61.1%−58.0%
July 27, 2017July 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $42,189 +6.1%−40.0%−34.7%
June 27, 2017June 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $46,569 +6.9%−46.4%−45.4%
May 30, 2017May 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $708,130 +9.5%−54.5%−54.0%
April 27, 2017April 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $34,849 −15.0%−67.2%−66.4%
March 28, 2017March 27, 2017 HAPN Sale $30,726 −0.8%−49.6%−45.0%
February 28, 2017February 27, 2017 HAPN Sale $32,222 +2.8%−44.8%−60.6%
January 30, 2017January 26, 2017 HAPN Sale $42,010 −10.6%−67.0%−60.7%
December 29, 2016December 27, 2016 HAPN Sale $30,799 −5.0%−40.9%−45.1%
November 30, 2016November 28, 2016 HAPN Sale $35,133 −14.2%−42.2%−46.3%
October 28, 2016October 26, 2016 HAPN Sale $28,977 not yetnot yetnot yet
September 28, 2016September 26, 2016 HAPN Sale $37,118 −20.1%−19.2%−20.9%
August 30, 2016August 26, 2016 HAPN Sale $32,626 +2.7%−1.7%−1.9%
July 28, 2016July 26, 2016 HAPN Sale $25,249 not yetnot yetnot yet
June 29, 2016June 27, 2016 HAPN Sale $34,629 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Gulati Sameer traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.