Allied Physicians Of California, A Professional Medical Corp: insider trades

10% owner at Astrana Health, Inc. 25 open-market purchases and 1 sale not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 20, 2019 to June 17, 2022.

Would copying Allied Physicians Of California, A Professional Medical Corp’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on November 21, 2019 into $14,648 by November 2, 2026, +5.7% a year. The copy held shares only 48% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $15,616, +6.7% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $26,946, +15.4% a year). Beta against the index was 0.88. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was −16.8% against the S&P 500 (median −18.1%), and 12% beat it: within what luck alone would produce (p = 0.21 over 4 years). Measured from the trade date, the insider’s own timing, the average was −15.3%. After their sales, the shares moved +64.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 0% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Copying Allied Physicians Of California, A Professional Medical CorpS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying Allied Physicians Of California, A Professional Medical Corp’s open-market purchases from November 21, 2019, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.

Return a year, copying: +5.7%
S&P 500, same days invested: +6.7% (held throughout +15.4%)
Time in shares: 48%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500): 0.29 (0.67)
Biggest drop (S&P 500): −77% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta): 0.88
Purchases copied: 25

Trade by trade

Allied Physicians Of California, A Professional Medical Corp: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	25	+3.4%	−8.0%	24%	4	0.84	0.46	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report	25	−1.1%	−6.2%	16%	4	0.26	0.81	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the report	25	−16.8%	−18.1%	12%	4	−1.61	0.21	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	25	−15.3%	−17.9%	12%	4	−1.51	0.23	No reliable evidence
Sales, 3 months after the report	1	+197.4%	+197.4%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	1	+64.5%	+64.5%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	1	+59.1%	+59.1%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Astrana Health, Inc. ASTH	—	25	1	November 20, 2019	June 17, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
June 17, 2022	June 17, 2022	ASTH	Purchase	$9,250,000	+3.0%	−37.8%	−31.3%
August 19, 2021	August 17, 2021	ASTH	Purchase	$2,946,800	+54.5%	−30.3%	−33.9%
April 28, 2021	April 28, 2021	ASTH	Purchase	$2,450,000	+229.4%	+25.9%	+30.4%
April 6, 2021	April 1, 2021	ASTH	Sale	$40,132,102	+197.4%	+64.5%	+59.1%
January 15, 2020	January 15, 2020	ASTH	Purchase	$78,825	−14.6%	+1.1%	+1.5%
January 14, 2020	January 13, 2020	ASTH	Purchase	$222,255	−8.6%	+1.5%	+5.1%
December 18, 2019	December 18, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$277,500	−12.1%	−22.4%	−20.5%
December 17, 2019	December 17, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$277,050	−11.8%	−20.5%	−21.4%
December 16, 2019	December 16, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$284,100	−10.2%	−21.4%	−23.9%
December 13, 2019	December 13, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$654,354	−16.4%	−23.9%	−22.8%
December 12, 2019	December 12, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$427,534	−21.6%	−22.8%	−20.6%
December 12, 2019	December 11, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$481,347	−21.6%	−22.8%	−18.1%
December 10, 2019	December 10, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$392,988	−16.6%	−18.1%	−13.3%
December 9, 2019	December 9, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$679,360	−6.5%	−13.3%	−13.4%
December 6, 2019	December 6, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$613,279	−4.2%	−13.4%	−25.4%
December 5, 2019	December 5, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$253,411	−14.0%	−25.4%	−23.7%
December 4, 2019	December 4, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$340,376	−8.0%	−23.7%	−23.7%
December 3, 2019	December 3, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$364,800	−9.3%	−23.7%	−23.6%
December 2, 2019	November 29, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$453,710	−11.5%	−23.6%	−17.7%
November 27, 2019	November 27, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$45,550	−5.8%	−17.7%	−17.9%
November 27, 2019	November 26, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$179,600	−5.8%	−17.7%	−16.4%
November 25, 2019	November 25, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$571,560	+2.5%	−16.4%	−12.9%
November 22, 2019	November 22, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$444,750	+4.4%	−12.9%	−8.8%
November 21, 2019	November 21, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$33,250	+3.9%	−8.8%	−15.8%
November 20, 2019	November 20, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$209,088	−7.3%	−15.8%	−12.6%
November 20, 2019	November 19, 2019	ASTH	Purchase	$294,343	−7.3%	−15.8%	−3.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Allied Physicians Of California, A Professional Medical Corp traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.