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Wainwright Julie: insider trades

Chief executive at Therealreal, Inc. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 24, 2020 to May 24, 2022.

What happened after Wainwright Julie’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −68.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 12 −11.1% −27.3% 67% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 12 −68.3% −77.1% 100% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 12 −68.3% −75.9% 100% 3 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Therealreal, Inc. REAL Chief Executive Officer013August 24, 2020May 24, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 24, 2022May 20, 2022 REAL Sale $51,622 not yetnot yetnot yet
April 26, 2022April 22, 2022 REAL Sale $13,360 −56.7%−81.9%−79.5%
February 23, 2022February 20, 2022 REAL Sale $90,651 −57.9%−77.4%−76.3%
November 23, 2021November 20, 2021 REAL Sale $241,720 −42.0%−77.8%−76.0%
October 26, 2021October 22, 2021 REAL Sale $39,231 −31.8%−73.0%−74.3%
August 24, 2021August 20, 2021 REAL Sale $193,642 +10.2%−76.4%−75.8%
July 26, 2021July 22, 2021 REAL Sale $54,021 −27.0%−78.3%−77.7%
May 24, 2021May 20, 2021 REAL Sale $223,401 −27.4%−79.3%−73.5%
April 26, 2021April 22, 2021 REAL Sale $50,308 −33.9%−76.7%−80.3%
January 26, 2021January 22, 2021 REAL Sale $66,969 +1.3%−80.5%−82.0%
November 24, 2020November 20, 2020 REAL Sale $127,303 +89.2%−17.4%−16.9%
October 26, 2020October 22, 2020 REAL Sale $35,934 +70.0%−43.1%−44.8%
August 24, 2020August 20, 2020 REAL Sale $118,879 −27.2%−58.3%−62.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Wainwright Julie traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.